A.U.: The concerns articulated by Freedom House are justified. In a worst case scenario, the situation could turn out to be dead-ended. A new popular uprising like that in 2004 may become inevitable. But this time, such a mass action of civil disobedience could result in a regional segmentation, or even in the final break-up of the country. In view of the growth of social polarisation, in Ukraine , in the past year, provoked by dubious "political technologies", anti- and pro-regime demonstrations may de facto turn into anti-state activities. New movements may appear in which narrowly political demands will no longer prevail. Rather, they may be guided by deeper civilisational, national or ethnic ideologies which will greatly complicate the search for compromise, or may even exclude a peaceful solution. This would be an explosive situation.
- These days, Ukraine celebrates the 20th anniversary of its independence. Considering the problematic situation with democracy, human rights, the problems with energy security, many citizens' uncertainty about their future etc., what can Ukrainians celebrate on Independence Day? What can they be proud of?
A.U.: All the difficulties notwithstanding, Ukrainians can be proud of the establishment and survival of their state, as well as of the impressive revival of Ukrainian culture, during the last 20 years. It is also noteworthy that the Ukrainians have managed to prevent armed conflicts on their country's territory, whereas this important aim has not been achieved in Russia (in the Northern Caucasus ), Yugoslavia , Central Asia , Moldova , and the Southern Caucasus . Furthermore, Ukraine 's citizens have so far prevented the creation of a new dictatorship, as it has happened in Belarus or the Central Asian states. These and other achievements still make Ukraine a special country, in the post-Soviet context. The EU should duly acknowledge this fact, and finally grant Ukraine a membership perspective.
(Translated from Russian by Dr. Anton Shekhovtsov, Kreisau-Fellow of the George Bell Institute.)
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