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Based on International Consulting Services (ICS) June 23 - 27 poll numbers, Chavez holds an overwhelming 25.2% advantage. He leads Capriles by a 59.1% to 33.9% margin.
Results show Capriles "badly stagnated in the recent period." It's not surprising. Most Venezuelans deplore returning to the bad old days. Sacrificing Bolivarianism for money power rule is unthinkable.
Asked to evaluate governmental performance, 71.4% rated Chavez positive compared to 28.3% judging him negatively. Heading toward October, he looks unbeatable.
So does PSUV. It's got a 59.9% advantage. Primero Justicia is MUD's strongest coalition partner. It registered a meager 17.9%. UNT got an embarrassing 3.8%. Worse still, Proyecto Venezuela, Copei and Adeco scored 1.8%, 1.8%, and 1.3% respectively.
MUD's combined strength is less than 27%. In December 2005, Accion Democratica (AD), Copei and Proyecto Venezuela withdrew from National Assembly elections. At issue was lack of support. They claimed no trust in electoral legitimacy. In fact, it's beyond reproach.
Perhaps MUD will find reason to back out for equally spurious reasons, or if participate will cry foul when results are announced. Scoundrels who can't win fairly denounce systems rejecting them.
In June, Chavez said he knows of a "hidden" right-wing scheme to "boycott" or not recognize electoral results. On public television he explained that he'll "respond with a lot of vigor (to any) threat to the independence of Venezuela."
He's mindful of preventing an April 2002 repeat. He's likely ready to confront lawless outbreaks if they occur.
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