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Calm Before Greater Storm in Syria

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"The regime is mocking the international community. It will stop shooting for Mr. Annan for a while, but it will go back to the killing and violence and humiliation."

Assad's damned whatever he does or doesn't do. Al-Deeb's comments suggest resumed insurgent violence. Pretexts are easy to find. If not readily available, they're invented. Today's calm belies what's likely coming.

Belligerent media and political comments incite it. On April 11, White House spokesman Jay Carney expressed skepticism of Assad's intentions, saying:

"(D)epending on how events play out on Thursday, the administration would consult with allies on any additional measures toward Syria."

According to Washington's UN envoy Susan Rice, Assad's "commitments....have little if any credibility given (his) track record."

Ahead of the ceasefire deadline, Hillary Clinton expressed "alarm for the ongoing violence in Syria and we are concerned about the problems facing (Annan) as he attempts to bring about a ceasefire and the end to violence."

"We will have another go at trying to persuade the Russians that the situation is deteriorating and the likelihood of regional conflict and civil war is increasing."

She added that Washington and allies will "look for ways (to) bring about a peaceful resolution of the current situation and a political transition."

 

In other words, regime change.

Perhaps Annan spoke for her warning of "unimaginable consequences" if violence continues. It suggests short-lived calm followed by violent eruptions, then intervention heading for war.

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