Not surprisingly, the Biden administration faces increasing pressure over China and the dangers of war, a narrative that seems like a response to a growing public consensus that we can't continue to put the Pentagon's needs first. The military services are already beginning to turn on each other as they fight for their share of the future budget pie. Concerned that the money train may finally be preparing to run off the tracks, there's been a persistent drumbeat of exaggeration about the military threat posed by China.
In that context, the key document Pentagon boosters continue to cite, though it was published in 2018, is a report from the National Defense Strategy Commission. It recommended cutting the entitlement programs that make up this country's social safety net to pay for a 3% to 5% annual increase in Pentagon spending. Most of the panelists on that commission were defense industry consultants, board members of the giant weapons makers, or lobbyists for the same. Needless to say, they had a financial stake in raising concerns that China would overtake the United States militarily in the reasonably near future.
Indeed, it's a fact of life that competition with China is now a challenge, but it's important to maintain a sense of realism about the nature of that threat. As John Isaacs of the Council for a Livable World recently showed, in capacity and strength, the U.S. military dominates China's many times over. "It seems that China has become the new Soviet Union strawman," Isaacs wrote. "But there's one big difference: while the Soviet military and nuclear arsenal were a fair match for the United States', China's simply aren't." The new cold war with China that the Biden administration is already promoting only threatens to weaken this country as resources are diverted away from combating the most serious threats of our time like pandemics, climate change, and white supremacy.
Unfortunately, in February, the Biden administration, having largely bought into this rhetoric, announced the establishment of a new Pentagon China Task Force. The most likely outcome, as my colleague Dan Grazier points out, is that the president and his foreign policy team will provide ample "cover for elected officials to back unpopular policy recommendations that will end up fulfilling the wish list of the defense industry."
As longtime Atlantic correspondent and defense-reform expert James Fallows has noted, America's draft-less twenty-first-century wars have essentially ensured that the U.S. has become a "chickenhawk nation." For those unfamiliar with the term, chickenhawk refers to "those eager to go to war, as long as someone else is going" in their place. The net result is that the American public has, in this century, proven remarkably complacent about how Washington has used force, "blithely assuming we would win." It was bad enough with Afghanistan, Iraq, and the other forever-war countries, but when it comes to China, it's hard to imagine anything but the most negative outcomes from those encouraging military conflict.
Meanwhile, as with so much related to the Pentagon, the consequences at home of the China scare are already apparent. As has been increasingly obvious of late, overheated rhetoric about the dangers of China have led to an increase in hate-crime attacks against Asian Americans nationwide. While former President Trump's anti-China rhetoric ("Kung-flu," "China Virus") seems to have contributed significantly to this increase in hate crimes, so has the rise in fear-mongering about the China threat and the bolstering of what's still called "defense" policy that's gone with it.
This country would undoubtedly benefit from more competition with (as well as cooperation with) China that would strengthen the economy and create more prosperity here. On the other hand, a new cold war atmosphere will allow the Pentagon to horde resources that would otherwise go to our greater public health and safety needs.
Unfortunately, 100-plus days later, the Biden administration has already wasted its first opportunity to change course.
Copyright 2021 Mandy Smithberger
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