The Pentagon appears to be particularly concerned about the potential risks of social crisis, civil unrest and collapse, both at home and abroad.
In a section calling for submissions on "Societal Resilience and Change", the Minerva document states that "DoD seeks to develop new insights into the social dynamics within regions and states of strategic interest, and to examine the factors that affect societal resilience to external 'shock' events and corresponding tipping points."
Without specifying what those "shocks" could be, the document does mention developing frameworks to improve policy "before, during, and after societal shifts like those seen during the so-called Arab Spring."
It should be noted that the Arab Spring protests had brought down and undermined brutal autocratic governments that had, however, been longstanding US allies.
The Minerva document also emphasizes the need to understand "changes in demographics (e.g., gender and age structure, wealth distribution) on internal and external stability," especially what the Pentagon describes candidly as:
"Security implications of aging populations and shrinking working age populations worldwide."
So the Pentagon anticipates a looming economic crisis due the unsustainability of the rise in an elderly population, relative to the reducing numbers of working people. It further confirms that the Pentagon perceives this as posing a potential national security crisis.
The US, and major allies like Britain, Germany, France, and Israel, are among the top 20 countries that will be most impacted by these demographic trends.
Last year, the Wall Street Journal reported that in 2016, "the world's advanced economies will reach a critical milestone. For the first time since 1950, their combined working-age population will decline, according to United Nations projections, and by 2050 it will shrink 5%. The ranks of workers will also fall in key emerging markets, such as China and Russia. At the same time the share of these countries' population over 65 will skyrocket."
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