In 2008, Ron Paul managed to mount a surprisingly credible campaign, raising astounding sums of money and nabbing around 10 percent in Iowa and New Hampshire. He never seriously threatened to win the nomination, though, and finished with only a handful of delegates, despite staying in the race until the bitter end.
This was all in the, pre-Wall Street collapse, pre-TARP, pre-President Obama Republican Party. In the last two years, Ron Paul's message has found wider resonance in the GOP, fueled by deep grass-roots anger at Washington and Wall Street -- enough that he was able to win February's CPAC straw poll.
There is a very interesting article in August 23rd's Washington Post about a rift between the senior Ron Paul and son Rand Paul regarding the building of the so-called ground zero mosque. Apparently Ron Paul supports building the mosque, and in a statement released August 20th, ripped into opponents of the mosque, charging political demagoguery. However Rand Paul, probably hoping to capitalize on the prevailing public opinion (and following the Republican Party line) is very much against the mosque. To which Ron Paul's reaction was (via a spokesman), as reported by Talking Points Memo, "Rand Paul is his own man." If this is any indication, Rand Paul has a way to go before he becomes half the man his father is, philosophically and politically.
Along with Sarah Palin's resurgence in popularity among the GOP base, it is well to remember that Ron Paul is still very popular, and is the leading figure in Libertarian circles, and in fact, most people in Libertarian circles usually end up voting Republican anyway. Let's fact it folks, the political system in the United States is currently locked up in a two party system. Whether Dr. Paul's son Rand Paul can emerge as a legitimate Presidential candidate by 2012, only time will tell. But there is in fact little doubt that he will be the next Republican Senator from Kentucky, and there is a lot of time between now and 2012.
And let's admit it, Mike Huckabee ain't going to get the nomination. He's too much the outsider, and while he is a fine Christian man, he's said some pretty terrible or ignorant things that don't fly with the average educated American. (Of course, we thought Sarah Palin wouldn't fly with even the average educated Republican voter. Apparently we were wrong there.) For instance, by and large Americans still support Medicare and Medicaid, the essential social safety nets poorer and older Americans rely on. Huckabee is against Medicaid, saying, "One thing governors feel, Democrats and Republicans alike, is that we have a health care system that, if you're on Medicaid, you have unlimited access to health care, at unlimited levels, at no cost. No wonder it's running away." Yes, Mr. Huckabee? Medicaid gives "unlimited access?" Try finding a decent doctor who accepts it outside of the inner cities. And don't you realize, sir, that, while it certainly IS a drain on state budgets, it provides absolutely essential health care services to many millions of Americans who would otherwise suffer and even die without it. And you want to cut THAT out of the equation?
And let's face it, a guy with the humble roots and "outsider" status Huckabee has just isn't going to make it on the national political stage. He's said some revealing things that show us that he is really kind of "out of it," like: "When we were in college we used to take a popcorn popper -- because that was the only thing they would let us have in the dorms -- and fry squirrels in the popcorn popper." (Sorry if that might make me seem elitist, believe me I'm not and I actually appreciate the humor of it, but, really, that's not a "Presidential" quotation.) And people generally get that a guy like Huckabee isn't our man to run foreign policy for the United States. Take a quote like: "And the ultimate thing is, I may not be the expert that some people are on foreign policy, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night." No, take Mike Huckabee out of the equation. The libertarian block inside of the GOP largely doesn't support Huckabee, and he is too much the uneducated outsider.
The real fight for the 2012 Republican nomination might come down to a fight between Sarah Palin (with Glenn Beck on the ticket for VP?), Mitt Romney as the business community and establishment insider, and the Libertarian Party patriarch Ron Paul's son Rand Paul. Certainly Dr. Paul himself has a LOT of popularity on the internet. We'll give you more coverage on Rand Paul at a later date, especially if he emerges as the Libertarian Party's -- or that component of the GOP's standard bearer.
Take Newt Gingrich out of the equation. There's been some speculation to the effect that Newt's self-promoting crusades against homosexuality and against the Ground Zero mosque, which have given him a resurgence in popularity and some mention as a potential candidate for 2012, have really been all about selling his books. The comparison he made between Moslim moderates wanting to build a mosque near ground zero and the Nazi's who slaughtered 6 million Jews at the time of WWII is outside of the mainstream of American politics. While currently 66 percent of Americans are against building the mosque, and because of that Gingrich was able to insert himself into the limelight, it's not the kind of statement that endears itself to the Israeli lobby, or most educated Americans, and Gingrich already had his chance.
My own comment about Gingrich's grandstanding on August 23rd was:
"Newt, I never thought very highly of you, but how low you've sunk! According to my friend Linda, the concensus on MSNBC's Morning Joe is that Newt is mainly out to turn a buck selling his books and this is publicity. There was discussion that (of course) he has been prominently mentioned as a Republican Presidential candidate, but if (he) were doing that, he's alienating too many Reagan Democrats, Independents and fiscal Republicans with this grandstand act on the ground zero mosque. And he just finished a similar grandstand act on "family values" and homosexuality back at the beginning of August. No, Mr. Gingrich apparently is just shamelessly trying to make a buck. And think of the forces he has loosed in America, he and his cohort in bigotry Sarah Palin! Freakin' idiots!" ~ Paul Evans
America deserves better than the likes of the sickening pairing off of Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck. (Since the two of them are so chummy these days, the frightening prospect of Glenn Beck as a Vice Presidential candidate on a ticket with Sarah Palin rears it's ugly head.) As to Newt Gingrich, he has the albatross of his two divorces and unfaithfulness to his wives around his neck, and as to his recent comments (and his renewed popularity), while comments like those appeal to certain segments of the population, they are outside of the mainstream of politics and will not fly for 2012. At least one can hope comments like those are still too unclassy, and basically Newt has been considered as washed up for some time, despite his recent popularity.
This leaves whomever takes up Ron Paul's Libertarian banner, the Sarah Palin juggernaut, and Mitt Romney, who edged out Dr. Paul in a Republican straw poll of GOP insiders, 439 to 438, in early April. (Sarah Palin came in third with 321 votes). Romney is popular in the business community, but I'm really not sure if America is ready for a Mormon President.
The Washington Post's coverage on the Republican field for 2012 gives some prominent coverage for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who is already to some extent campaigning actively for the slot. We feel that he is too much of an unknown, although he has certainly been trying to get into the picture, and certainly Barack Obama was not a household name at the beginning of 2007, either. But Pawlenty is not as popular as other Republican personalities and is even more unlikely at this point to get close to the nomination than would be the Libertarian standard bearer, whoever that turns out to be. The Post feels that at this point Romney has to be considered the front runner. I think he's be a shoe in if not for the fact that he is Mormon. Mormons are fine people, but knowing the nature of religious prejudice as I do (that whole Book of Mormon thing doesn't fly with a lot of conservative Christians), I really still think America isn't ready for a Mormon President, however much influence that church admittedly has in Washington power circles, (and that actually is not inconsiderable). Still, Obama overcame his blackness, an Islamic middle name, and being a relative unknown, didn't he? Yet, in 2012, more than in 2008, Romney may suffer from a reputation as a Washington insider and as a business and Wall Street sort of insider among a Republican base really pretty fed up with "business as usual."
The other figure mentioned as early as April 26th as a legitimate candidate is Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi. Certainly the case could be made for a Barbour candidacy, although he is little known outside of the South. "If there is anything to think about after the election is over, then I'll start to think about it then," Barbour said in a classic bit of leaving-the-door-ajar-ism. "If you see me lose 40 pounds, you will see I am either running or have cancer." Barbour has to be considered, considering what a regionalized, Southern-based party the GOP has become.
Would the Republican Party really nominate a woman they knew was likely to lose against Obama in 2012? Or would a business insider like Romney be more likely? Certainly, if a black man can now get elected President, perhaps the time has come when a Mormon could. But don't count out whomever emerges as the Libertarian standard bearer, whether it is Rand Paul or someone else. America is tired of "insiders" and the Washington political elite, and from what I've seen, the mood is pretty ugly here in the countryside. To a liberal like me, I wouldn't want to see a know-nothing like Sarah Palin get anywhere near the nomination of one of the two major parties in a Presidential election. I'm too much of a patriot to want to see somebody who can't answer questions from news commentators get that close to the position of President.
As a Democrat, I know that a Palin nomination would make a second term for Barack Obama very likely, but I don't want to see a false, ignorant, self-serving charlatan like Palin that near to the Presidency. Far better that someone like Dr. Ron Paul, who would at least get us out of Afghanistan and is against the Wall Street establishment, attain the GOP nomination than Sarah Palin, who really scares me. Romney is a slick business community right wing insider I would hate to see get the nomination as well, especially since a Romney nomination would play better with Reagan Democrats and Independents than would a Palin candidacy. I have to admit to a certain personal liking for Ron Paul, although I can't support many of his ideas about a return to a Gold Standard and reducing government. He's a likable, and educated man, and I have to think that he, at least, would work towards cleaning some of the corruption out of the political process. They say that at 75 (77 in 2012), Ron Paul is too old to run for President, but his mind is certainly sharp, and time will tell. We could do worse. A lot.
Watch Why (good) libertarians and socialists/progressives aren't really at odds with each other, YouTube video -- 6:38.
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