Putin Makes Obama an Offer He Can't Refuse

"In his testimony before the Senate Armed Services committee on Tuesday, Carter said 'we won't hold back from supporting capable partners in opportunistic attacks against ISIL...or conducting such mission directly, whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground." ("Sec. Carter: U.S. to Begin 'Direct Action on the Ground' in Iraq, Syria," NBC News)

This sounds a lot worse than it is. The truth is, Obama has no stomach for the type of escalation the hawks (like Hillary Clinton and John McCain) are demanding. There aren't going to be any "safe zones" or "no-fly zones" or any other provocations which would risk a bloody conflagration with Moscow. What Obama is looking for is the best face-saving strategy available that will allow him to retreat without incurring the wrath of the Washington warmongers. It's a tall order, but Sec-Def Ash Carter has come up with a plan that might just do-the-trick. This is from The Hill:

"Defense Secretary Ash Carter on Tuesday described new ways the U.S. military plans to increase pressure on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, after months of criticism that the administration is not doing enough to defeat the terrorist group.

"'The changes we're pursuing can be described by what I call the 'three Rs' -- Raqqa, Ramadi and Raids,' Carter testified the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"First, Carter said the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS plans to support moderate Syrian forces to go after Raqqa -- the terrorist group's stronghold and administration capital.

"The secretary also said he hopes to pursue a new way of equipping the Syrian Arab Coalition, which consists of about a dozen groups.

"'While the old approach was to train and equip completely new forces outside of Syria before sending them into the fight, the new approach is to work with vetted leaders of groups that are already fighting ISIL, and provide equipment and some training to them and support their operations with airpower,' he said.

"He also said the coalition expects to intensify its air campaign with additional U.S. and coalition aircraft, and to target ISIS with a higher and heavier rate of strikes.

"'This will include more strikes against ISIL high-value targets as our intelligence improves, and also its oil enterprise, which is a critical pillar of ISIL's financial infrastructure,' Carter said, using a different acronym for ISIS." ("Pentagon chief unveils new plan for ISIS fight," The Hill)

See anything new here? It's a big nothingburger, right?

They're going to kill more "high-value targets"?

Big whoop. That's always been the game plan, hasn't it? Of course, it has.

What this shows is that Obama is just running out the clock hoping he can keep this mess on the back-burner until he's out of office and working out the terms of his first big book deal. The last thing he wants is to get embroiled in a spitting match with the Kremlin his final year in office.

Unfortunately, the problem Obama is going to encounter is that Putin can't simply turn off the war machine with the flip of a switch. It took Moscow a long time to decide to intervene in Syria, just like it took a long time to marshal the forces that would be deployed, build the coalition and draft the battle plan. The Russians don't take war lightly, so now that they've put the ball into motion they're not going to stop until the job is done and the bulk of the terrorists have been exterminated. That means there's not going to be a ceasefire in the immediate future.

Putin needs to demonstrate that once Moscow commits its forces, it will persevere until it achieves victory. That victory could come in the form of "liberating Aleppo" and a subsequent sealing off of the Turkish-Syria border or he might have some other goal in mind. But it's a matter of credibility as much as anything. If Putin pulls back, hesitates or shows even the slightest lack of resolve, Washington will see it as a sign of weakness and try to exploit it. So Putin has no choice but to see this thing through to the bitter end. At the very least, he needs to prove to Washington that when Russia gets involved, Russia wins.

That's a message Washington needs to hear.