Back to pre-Bismarck?
The EU, meanwhile, pays the price for the regime change obsession, convulsed and torn apart by endless divisions provoked by the refugee crisis coupled with the specter of the eternal recurrence of jihad in the streets -- and trains -- linking major European capitals. But then, as the EU may desperately want a solution to the tragic Syrian puzzle, we have David of Arabia Cameron and General Hollande getting ready to deliver puny air strikes that will hardly cause "Caliphate" goons to shake in their designer desert boots.
No wonder pan-Europe public opinion is increasingly considering it's actually the Obama administration which is perpetuating the Syrian tragedy -- as long as it sticks to the mirages of regime change, a non-existent "Free Syrian Army," "moderate rebels" (of the al-Qaeda in Syria kind), not to mention demonizing any support offered by Russia and Iran to Damascus.
Putin could not have been more crystal clear -- and adults from Washington to Brussels did get the message; "Without an active participation of the Syrian authorities and the military, it would be impossible to expel the terrorists from that country and the region as a whole ... Without Russia's support for Syria, the situation in the country would have been worse than in Libya, and the flow of refugees even bigger."
So if there's any chance of a peace deal in Syria, it's Putin's fault.
But there's another possible scenario being actively discussed for the near future. That would be the "surge" of multiple microstates across the Middle East -- as a counterpunch to internecine carnage. So we would have, among others, Allawistan, Kurdistan, Druzistan, Yazidistan, Houthistan -- with borders that are already reasonably clear on the ground.
Talk about a 21st century remix of pre-Bismarck Europe princely states. The precedent is what the EU created in the Balkans; the break up of Yugoslavia across religious lines even as the bulk of the population is Slavic.
A Middle Eastern remix would only work if Turkey and Iran would agree to a Kurdistan. It won't happen. Most Iraqis and Syrians, for their part, have also developed a strong national identity; 70% of Syrians, in a recent poll, oppose the partition of the country (while 82% view ISIS/ISIL/Daesh as a US and/or foreign made concoction.) Yet Syria arguably could still be split in three, depending on where the US-Russia power play will lead. But as we stand, the struggle for a unified, pacified, secular Syria is the only realpolitik game in town.
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