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Ongoing Global Economic Crisis

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Overall, conditions are decidedly negative at a time financial markets are whistling past the graveyard. Expect reality to eventually outstrip hope.

In fact, Europe's strongest economy, Germany, looks troubled. Q IV growth appears down 1% on an annualized basis, and number two economy France is headed south. UK production dropped 0.6% in November following a 1% plunge in October. Year-over-year, Britain's down -3.1%.

The OECD's leading indicator for November slid 0.1%, led by a 0.4% drop in Europe. China also dropped 0.1% and Asia fell 0.2%. The year-over-year trend is -2.2%, the worst reading since July 2009 as conditions keep weakening.

PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) are seriously troubled. Successive bailouts and austerity did more harm than good. 

Continued wrongheaded policies assures train wreck unpleasantness and grief. For ordinary people, it means greater misery than already. Stronger economies will sink with weaker ones.

In fact, Financial Times contributer Stefan Wagstyl says economies are so interlinked that a shock in one spreads everywhere in short order, including among the strongest. It's coming but no one knows when. Today's fragility is a global event.

Expect troubled Eurozone economies to lead others down. Since peaking in 2010, its leading indicator plunged. So did Asia and an overall global one.

The Fed's latest Beige Book assessment reflected weak hiring, housing mired in Depression, and faltering retail pricing power. In addition, the UCLA-Ceridian index of US industrial activity shows distinct weakness. At -4%, its year-over-year trend is negative for the first time since November 2009.

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