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California
It's reeling from its biggest ever budget shortfall, in part from the housing bust. As it imploded, unemployment surged. Nationally it's 10.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) headline U-3 figure. The broader U-6 one is 17.5%.
BLS's September California U-6 measure is 19.6%, which includes:
-- "marginally attached workers" - those not actively looking but sought work sometime in the past 12 months without success;
-- "discouraged workers" who want jobs but gave up looking; and
-- part timers seeking full-time employment but can't find it.
U-6 calculations way understate the true picture because of BLS's so-called Birth/Death Model. In good or bad times, it regularly adds tens of thousands more small company phantom jobs, supposedly missed by monthly surveys. In the current environment, the National Federation of Independent Business reports these firms are actively cutting them. More on this below.
According to California Employment Development Department estimates through September, unemployment is 21.9% and rising. The true figure is likely higher given the gravity of current conditions.
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