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OpEdNews Op Eds    H1'ed 9/28/19

How the Saudi Oil Field Attack Overturned America's Applecart

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The US is certainly not withdrawing from the Middle East. In spite of the fact that shale oil has turned the United States into the world's largest oil producer, we still import around one million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia. Europe is much more dependent on Gulf oil, as are the Chinese and Indians. The US is not about to walk away from its 70-plus year grip on the region.

But the chessboard is not the same as it was six months ago. The Americans may have overwhelming military force in the Middle East, but using it might tank world oil prices and send the West -- as well as India and China -- into a major recession.

Israel is still the dominant local power, but if it picks a fight with Iran or Hezbollah those drones and cruises will be headed its way. Israel relies on its "Iron Dome" anti-missile system, but while Iron Dome may do a pretty good job against the primitive missiles used by Hamas, mobile cruises and drones are another matter. While Israel could inflict enormous damage on any of its foes, the price tag could be considerably higher than in the past.

Stalemates can be dangerous because there is an incentive to try and break them by introducing some game changing weapon system. But stalemates also create the possibility for diplomatic solutions. That is certainly the case now. If a more centrist government emerges from this last round of Israeli elections, Israel may step back from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's relentless campaign against Teheran. And Trump likes "deals," even though he is not very good at them.

"This is the new strategic balance," says Newclick Editor-In-Chief Prabir Purkayastha in the Asia Times, "and the sooner the US and its NATO partners accept it, the quicker we will look for peace in the region."

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Conn M. Hallinan is a columnist for Foreign Policy In Focus, "A Think Tank Without Walls, and an independent journalist. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of California, Berkeley. He oversaw the (more...)
 
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