Four million displaced persons, physical walls of separation, a strong Sunni militia controlling Anbar province, and continued violence in several provinces don't suggest national reconciliation or an approach for building institutions that are non-sectarian. A reduction in the number of militias has been accompanied by realignment of the militias.
Much has been made of the cordial arrangement between the sahwa or Awakening Movement that has pacified Anbar province and U.S. military forces, and that the Sahwa militia, known as the the Sons of Iraq, is being incorporated into the Shiite led Iraqi army. Not well publicized is that:
(1) The sahwa movements, of which there are several, has been described by Stéphane Lacroix, a lecturer at the prestigious Paris Institute of Political Studies, as "an amalgam of Saudi religious thinking and the philosophy of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood." The Iraq Sunni movement, which also contains some Shiites, has more of a nationalist description without the Radical Muslim trappings, but who knows? (2) General Petraeus has been quoted as saying that the Sons of Iraq would stay loyal to the course the United States has set "as long as it is in their interests," and (3) Shiites composed most of Saddam's military, but were led by Sunni officers who controlled their activities. Now it is the reverse and just as ominous.
Realignment of forces without reconciliation of populations spells confrontation. A surge that made all this possible seems to have made reconciliation less possible, which translates into a "surge" which has provided additional obstacles to peace and stability.
Dan Lieberman is the editor of Alternative Insight, a monthly web based newsletter.
In the last eight years, Dan has written many articles on the Middle East conflicts, which have circulated on websites and media throughout the world. He can be reached at alternativeinsight@earthlink.net
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