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Fiscal Crisis and American Globalism

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Even countries with considerable differences with the US in certain parts of the world are willing to abide US forces in others. Russia is angered by the US-driven expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe, but concerns with Islamist militancy spreading into its sizable (and growing) Muslim population make Russia reluctant to see the US abandon Afghanistan. Similarly, though circumspect of the US navy patrolling offshore, China does not want to see Islamist militancy spread into its western provinces.


Historically, deep recessions have led to political instability, demagogues, and war. That was certainly the case during the Depression of the 1930s and the present downturn is thought to be the worst since then. Many countries will look upon the US as a guarantor of stability. Americans will see it their duty.




Casualties

US casualties in various theaters, without attendant accomplishments, will increase domestic pressure to reduce globalism. That was the case with WWI and Vietnam, where senseless battle deaths appalled the public and ushered in periods of lessened involvement in world affairs.


Casualties in Iraq, even at their peak back in 2006, were comparatively light; presently they are negligible. Fighting in Afghanistan is seasonal, as insurgent fighters return home for winters and harvests. In other times, insurgents initiate most engagements, leaving them in control of fighting and casualties and to some extent western support as well.


Unlike previous American wars, casualties fall largely on working-class groups, who are more inclined than the public at large to support wars and accept the deaths of family members and neighbors. Privileged strata may protest, but only in muted ways. For most Americans, the re-acquaintance with the romance of war during the Reagan years had the condition that their children know nothing of it.




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Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard's Center for International (more...)
 

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