The report recommends a run off elections between the top two candidates: Martelly and Manigat. International officials have stated that the report "makes sense" and the methodology is "flawless" and the credentials of the report team are "impeccable". Haitians are questioning what methodology would actually account for the thousands of ballots littering the streets, uncounted after the elections. Apparently the recount process was carried out by using a small percentage of the tally sheets from the voting precincts. It was widely reported and observed that tally sheets were manipulated before they even arrived at the tabulation center.
In this scenario, Duvalier's return creates an enormous distraction, serious confusion and has the added benefit of rallying his base against Duvalier. Essentially, Duvalier is a pawn in Preval's transparent and desperate attempts to maintain power.
2. People believe that Dr. Paul Farmer, head of Partners in Health and Mr. Clinton's deputy UN special envoy to Haiti, is has orchestrated Duvalier's return behind the scenes. Farmer is an ardent Aristide supporter and Duvalier's return opens a window for Aristide's return. If Duvalier can return, why not Aristide? Aristide has an equally despotic track record in Haiti stealing elections, trafficking drugs and overseeing political persecution, violence and murder. His return would be disastrous for Haitians. Ever since the earthquake, however, there has been speculation about Aristide's return. He has tested the waters as have his political supporters, so people believe this is their political play to get him back in country.
3. Duvalier's return creates a level of political chaos that will be impossible to resolve without foreign political occupation -" and someone, somewhere benefits from that with billions of aid money on the line. The Haitian people will resolutely reject foreign occupation, however.
Whoever is pulling the strings (Preval or Farmer/Aristide backers), it is clear that they do not want to see a run-off between Martelly and Manigat and the annulment of the legislative elections. Duvalier is a pawn and a distraction. And, no matter who is using Duvalier as a pawn, knows there are the only two scenarios facing Duvalier: jail or execution.
One thing is certain: whoever is behind this move wants to ensure and maintain the status quo of corruption in Haiti. Ultimately whether or not the underlying motive is billions of dollars in reconstruction contracts that are in play or newly discovered resources (it is widely speculated that the earthquake revealed an oil deposit off the coast of Haiti) that some are trying to put their hands on, Haitian reformers in Haiti and the Diaspora need to come together via an emergency political summit to put an end to this madness. The Haitian democrats in country and in the Diaspora that are trying to change the culture of corruption are caught in a nexus of power that inhibits or completely thwarts their efforts. On the one side is the corrupt politics of Duvalier, Aristide and Preval and the Groupe de Bourdon, Haiti's business cartel controlling more than 90% of the economy and paying only 4% of the taxes, which is basically the status quo. And on the other side is the network of supporters in Washington, DC and other big capitals of the world. This group is comprised of lawyer searching for large retainers, ideological academics and foreign profiteers. In their fight for democracy and the modernization of Haiti's economic system, they never find a support base, and worse, those members of the wealthy sector use their resource to publicly assassinate their characters and isolate them. For all Haitians, a foreign occupation will never be an option and the political instability must end. We need to focus on rebuilding the country. Now.
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