Speaking from Iraq via satellite, Major General Walter Gaskin made the type of absolute statements most commanders try to avoid. "I believe we have turned the corner," he said.
To support his view, General Gaskin said there were 98 violent incidents in al-Anbar Province during the past week, compared to more than 400 during the same week a year ago. He showed a chart, indicating that is part of a new trend in the province, and he credited local leaders for making decisions and taking actions to oppose terrorists and support the Iraqi government and coalition forces. "This is a stark departure from historic norms. Something significant has changed from previous years. We have broken the cycle of violence," he said.
Despite these encouraging claims the overall level of violence remains high. Despite a momentary dip in June to as I mentioned earlier this week in response to the Yearlykos Sgt.
the(Iraqi) casualty count went down from 1,941 the previous month to a measly 1,251 in June. The unfortunate fact is that in July they went back up again to 1,621. You can call that "progress" if you consider doing the hokey-pokey (2 steps forward, one step back) to be "progress."
And some indications are that the body count may continue to rise in August.
"Four U.S. military personnel and a British soldier have been killed in attacks [in Iraq], military officials said yesterday, raising the number of U.S. deaths in August to 19 in a possible sign that extremists are regrouping after a decline in U.S. casualties last month."
The question then is, if the violence in Anbar is down so greatly - why haven't we seen that drop reflected in the overall death toll across the country? Could it be that the insurgency and sectarian strife haven't been quelled, it's simply moved somewhere else - like - Baghdad?
But U.S. commanders say that rogue Shiite militias have stepped into the gap left as Sunni insurgents have been pushed back, and are now responsible for most attacks on Americans in Baghdad and surrounding districts. Such a trend would elevate fears that Iraqi forces are not yet able to maintain security even when insurgents are beaten back. Large numbers of Iraqi police are believed also to hold allegiances to Shiite militia groups.
The spike in deaths comes as the overall number of U.S. troops in Iraq has temporarily peaked at its all-time high - nearly 162,000 - as new units arrive to replace those on the way out, the Pentagon said.
U.S. officials also have warned that militants might try for spectacular attacks before a high-level military and diplomatic assessment in September on U.S. strategies in Iraq and what’s needed in the months ahead.
There is also the arguement that the strategy used to achieve success in Anbar may be undermining the Iraqi Government and fueling the battle elsewhere.
On Anderson Cooper’s show later in the evening, CNN Baghdad correspondent Michael Ware, who spoke live on a night scope camera while embedded with troops responded to "the vice president’s evaluation" of progress in Iraq, calling it "sleight of hand." "Yeah, sectarian violence is down, but let’s have a look at that," said Ware. "More than two million people have fled this country. 50,000 are still fleeing every month, according to the United Nations. So there’s less people to be killed. And those who stay, increasingly are in ethnically-cleansed neighborhoods. They’ve been segregated."
Ware also responded to Brookings Institution analysts Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack’s recent New York Times op-ed offering a sunny appraisal of progress in Iraq, calling the report "very one dimensional." "It doesn’t look at what’s been done to achieve this and what long term sustainability there is," said Ware. "I mean, these guys unfortunately were only in the country for eight days."
In order to achieve the small victories that O’Hanlon and Pollack cherry-picked for their column, America is actually undermining the Iraqi government, according to Ware. "What America needs to come clean about is that it’s achieving these successes by cutting deals, primarily, with its enemies," he said.
"By achieving these successes, America is building Sunni militias," said Ware. "Yes, they’re targeting al Qaeda, but these are also anti-government forces opposed to the very government that America created."
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