increasing demand will have to be met with massive increases in
supply from this region.
BP's Statistical Review is the most widely used estimate of world oil
reserves but as Dr Campbell points out it is only a summary of highly
political estimates supplied by governments and oil companies.
As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company I
would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game."
A survey of the four countries with the biggest reported reserves -
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait - reveals major concerns. In
Kuwait last year, a journalist found documents suggesting the
country's real reserves were half of what was reported. Iran this
year became the first major oil producer to introduce oil rationing -
an indication of the administration's view on which way oil reserves
are going.
perhaps anyone else. He retired as chief executive of the kingdom's
oil corporation two years ago, and his view on how much Saudi
production can be increased is sobering. "The problem is that you go
from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 84.5 million in 2004. You're
leaping by two to three million [barrels a day]" each year, he told
The New York Times. "That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia every
couple of years. It can't be done indefinitely."
The importance of black gold
* A reduction of as little as 10 to 15 per cent could cripple oil-
dependent industrial economies. In the 1970s, a reduction of just 5
per cent caused a price increase of more than 400 per cent.
* Most farming equipment is either built in oil-powered plants or
uses diesel as fuel. Nearly all pesticides and many fertilisers are
made from oil.
* Most plastics, used in everything from computers and mobile phones
to pipelines, clothing and carpets, are made from oil-based
substances.
* Manufacturing requires huge amounts of fossil fuels. The
construction of a single car in the US requires, on average, at least
20 barrels of oil.
* Most renewable energy equipment requires large amounts of oil to
produce.
* Metal production - particularly aluminium - cosmetics, hair dye,
ink and many common painkillers all rely on oil.
Alternative sources of power
Coal
There are still an estimated 909 billion tonnes of proven coal
reserves worldwide, enough to last at least 155 years. But coal is a
fossil fuel and a dirty energy source that will only add to global
warming.
Natural gas
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