The economic crisis in Tehran has the hardliners in Trump's cabinet smelling blood, thinking that with enough pressure on the economy, the regime itself could fall. Both John Bolton and Mike Pompeo have made no secret of their desire to see regime change in Iran. This is the ultimate goal of Trump's war cabinet, but it doesn't have the slightest idea of the chaos that would follow a collapse of the Iranian government.
Technically, it is not up to Trump to end the deal, as it is a political agreement between Iran and six world powers: Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. Iran could certainly remain in the deal without the United States. But if it gets no economic benefit, the hardliners in Iran will get the upper hand, pushing Iran to end the intrusive inspections and accelerate its nuclear program. That will provide justification for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, to press for a direct military attack or support for an Israeli attack on Iran.
As long-time Iran analyst Trita Parsi has noted, Iran has boxed itself into a corner by negotiating a deal before obtaining nuclear weapons, and then by complying, while North Korea will likely be rewarded for its aggressive actions. "North Korea tested bombs and ballistic missiles capable of hitting the U.S. mainland. Iran, on the other hand, went to the negotiating table after only having enriched uranium at 20 percent. It had no nuclear weapons nor missiles capable of carrying them. Now, North Korea appears set on a path toward striking a deal with Trump and getting the recognition it has long sought. Iran, on the other hand, is about to see its nuclear deal collapse because the U.S. has been led to believe that Iran has run out of options."
The New York Times has called out the administration's reckless and hypocritical stance toward Iran. "It's curious," notes its April 30 editorial, "that while the United States is now preparing to extend an olive branch to the North Koreans, it has placed itself on a collision course with Tehran." Before the Trump administration takes a wrecking ball to the best global foreign policy achievement in the last decade, the American people -- and the Congress that is supposed to represent their interests -- better wake up and stop it.
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