And so, just over a year ago, relying on a 2001 authorization to wage war against al-Qaeda, President Obama ordered the first of what are now more than 7,000 airstrikes against ISIS, stationed thousands of U.S. military advisers and trainers in Iraq, and soon launched what would be a disastrous program to vet, arm, and train "moderate" Syrian rebels to counter the militants of the Islamic State.
In the year that followed, the Syrian refugee crisis escalated dramatically, thanks to the growing strength of ISIS, the brutality of the Syrian regime, and an ever more violent civil war. The entry of the U.S. and other countries into the conflict likely only increased the chaos and misery.
As a result, Lebanon alone, with a population of around 4.5 million, has taken in more than a million refugees. In other words, approximately one in every five people in that country is now a refugee from Syria. And while Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey have struggled to accommodate this deluge of asylum seekers, refugee Syrian families endure chronic and debilitating poverty, inadequate health care, and lack of access to education for their children.
Enter Russia, Stage Right
Just a couple of weeks ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin, a longstanding supporter of Assad, launched his own air war against ISIS. On September 30th, soon after Russian explosives began dropping, reports started to surface that they were hitting FSA fighters and infrastructure. In other words, Russia was dropping bombs on some of the rebels who have been receiving support from Washington.
Defense Secretary Ashton Carter promptly (and accurately) accused Russia of "pouring gasoline on a fire." And he would know, since the U.S. has been among the biggest gas pourers of all.
According to the National Priorities Project, U.S. taxpayers have already forked over an astonishing $6.5 billion in the administration's failed air war against ISIS, even as Pentagon officials acknowledge that airstrikes alone won't snuff out the terrorists or their "caliphate."
Meanwhile, Congress allocated $500 million for the failed "train and equip program" that was meant to produce 5,000 "moderate" Syrian rebels to fight ISIS. That program yielded only a handful of fighters, some of whom the al-Nusra Front reportedly kidnapped or killed. Some American-supplied trucks and ammunition were also turned over to Nusra Front fighters.
Yes, you read that correctly. The U.S. effectively supplied arms to al-Qaeda in Syria, just as -- thanks to the collapse of Iraqi army units, which abandoned their equipment in Mosul, Ramadi, and elsewhere -- we in effect helped equip ISIS, too. How's that for gasoline?
What matters most, however, is the staggering human toll of all this. More than 6.5 million Syrians are now displaced, impoverished, and adrift inside their own country. Another four million have become refugees, spilling into Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, and more recently heading for Europe in staggering numbers.
Their misery and utter desperation are beyond imagining as they push off rocky coasts heading for Europe, clinging to shoddy rubber rafts, or are crammed into suffocating cargo trucks -- sometimes to be met on arrival by water cannons and tear gas. A Syrian father recently laid bare the choices his family faced. Asked why he was "risking the lives of his children on an illegal and potentially lethal seaborne passage," he answered, "in Syria, they are dead already."
A Congressman Decides to Do Something
Until Congressman Himes sat down to write his letter, there had been remarkably little talk of international negotiations as an alternative to this endless devastation. It should be clear enough by now that continued violence, with ever more parties joining the fray, will bring only what it's brought for the past four years: chaos and destruction. While some war hawks in Washington have previously urged more "decisive" military action to oust Assad as well as destroy the Islamic State, that path would most likely leave Syria in still greater chaos -- and ripe for further exploitation by ISIS, the al-Nusra Front, and other extremist outfits.
Negotiations it must be. They won't be quick or easy. It's a guarantee, in fact, that they'll be messy and wrenching. When it comes to Syria, that's nothing new. But diplomacy does promise gains over the situation as it stands today. The hard-nosed and principled diplomatic negotiations involving the U.S., Russia, China, Great Britain, France, and Germany around Iran's nuclear program prevailed when naysayers swore that they would fail. They stand as a remarkable example of what's possible when nations resolve conflicts with diplomacy instead of bloodshed.
Philip Gordon, the former White House Coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Region, has laid out a blueprint for how such negotiations might proceed on Syria. All the international players would have to be brought to the table, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Gordon notes that, since this group includes vehement supporters of Assad as well as those who are invested in his departure, negotiators would have to postpone any decision about Assad's fate and focus first on common interests.
And there are common interests -- in de-escalating the violence, addressing the refugee crisis, and defunding and defeating ISIS. Shared objectives might include negotiating localized ceasefires between the government and rebel forces and establishing a structure in which representatives of Assad's regime could begin a dialogue with the rebels. Then the group of negotiating nations could turn its focus to ISIS. Indeed, the ongoing wars and the disintegrating states of the region have created a fertile habitat for that terrorist group to spread its radical agenda and claim new ground. A de-escalation of the civil war, paired with meaningful humanitarian aid and cohesive and coordinated international efforts against ISIS, could prove the best hope for changing the fate and fortunes of the region.
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