Despite incontrovertible evidence from Egypt that merely changing the government does
not satisfy those who demand nothing less than the ouster of their present rulers, the
Three Blind Mice nevertheless went through this ritual Kabuki dance.
Predictably, with no effect whatever.
In Bahrain, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa has been approached by various groups and
individuals with suggestions for his orderly departure. The King is a Sunni Muslim; a
sizable part of his population is Shia. But the uprisings against his rule have come from
both Sunni and Shia. The Shia live mostly in the Eastern part of Bahrain, nearest to Shia
copmmunitieuis in neighboring Sunni Saudi Arabia. That was a major reason the Saudis
sent a thousand troops into Bahrain to help the King maintain law and order, Saudi style.
The United States, while excoriating Iranian ally Syria, has been largely silent on
Bahrain, presumably because of the tiny Kingdom's proximity to Saudi Arabia and the
presence of sizable populatuions of Shia Musis in each couintry, and Bahrain's strategic
role as headquarters of the U.S. fifth fleet.
In Yemen, President Saleh first sought to mollify demonstrators by pledging not to run in
2012, when his term expires. Later, under still more pressure, he agreed to leave office by
the end of this year. Still later, he appeared to reject both these positions and his current
thinking remains unclear. Protestors are demanding nothing less than his immediate
departure, as Egyptians did vis a vis Mubarak.
For the U.S., the Yemen situation is causing a major migraine.
In Syria, opposition groups say the Asad regime has reached out to them to begin talks.
And Syrian President Bashar al-Asad has made some concessions to the demonstrators.
For example, he granted Syrian citizenship to up to 150,000 Kurds living in eastern Syria,
thus satisfying a long-standing demand of the Kurdish minority.
But these belated gestures will mean less than nothing if armed police and soldiers are
killing, injuring and arresting protesters at the same time.
That is a fool's strategy. And it is unlikely to satisfy the demands of the pro-democracy
movement.
How is all this likely to play out? The honest answer is that no one knows. It is possible
that The Three Blind Mice of the Middle East may for now be successful in putting down
their rebellions using brute force, or some combination of the usual repression sweetened
with a few crumbs of new freedom.
But history tells us that when movements such as The Arab Awakening reach the kind of
numbers and intensity it took to oust Mubarak from Egypt and Ben Ali from Tunisia they
become virtualy unstoppable.
They may be quieted for weeks, months, even years. But, one day, they will be re-
galvanized by some random event, like a fruit-seller setting himself on fire.
So The Three Blind Mice of the Middle East shouldn't bet on The Arab Awakening going
back to sleep.
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