Russia gained the U.S.-NATO queen by taking Crimea into the Russian Federation. No more looking at the calendar every year wondering what happens when the lease runs out. Now, the lease runs forever.
Russia has the military capability to take the southeastern Ukraine any time it wants. President Obama's announcement that this isn't worth a war only enhances that position.
Putin can accomplish his objectives without military action. Russian troops put a hold on any Ukrainian military action in the Russian speaking territories. The military intimidation option can be used to achieve autonomous state status for these states within the Ukraine. Without firing a shot, Russia gains a barrier between Russia and NATO.
In this scenario, Russia has put NATO's king in check by stopping a unified Ukraine from slipping into EU and NATO hands. At the least, Russia will have the most economically viable part of Ukraine as its buffer. As time goes on, with a few more deft moves, Russia may take the EU king.
But, here's the checkmate, the reason that Russia will be able to achieve its geopolitical objectives without a trade war with Europe and the United States. In 2012, the European Union imported 213 billion Euros a year worth of goods from Russia and exported 123 billion.
Does anyone in his or her right mind think that the EU is ready to give up that trading arrangement?
The neoconservatives, their nihilist followers in Congress, and the servile Obama media enthusiasts can play at the grand game. At some point, the real players, the ones with all the money, will step in and restore sanity, clear the board so to speak. Checkmate.
In the meantime, the rest of us languish in the dead calm of a lifeless economy as we await the imminent calamities from radical climate change.
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