On the mixed side, Johnson is a fan of the Fair Tax. If you are anti-globalization/anti-WTO, this is something for you to like. The Fair Tax hits imports and locally made products equally. Expect to see Wal Mart lose some business and some shuttered factories to reopen. Since the Fair Tax is brain dead simple, smaller business gain some relative advantage with respect to the big mega-corporations.
On the downside, the Fair Tax would allow the rich to compound retained earnings for generations before paying tax. Ouch! There are mitigating factors, however. Johnson is a deficit hawk, and federal deficit spending is a subsidy for the Old Money Rich. Also, a consumption tax acts as a brain dead simple tax deferral for ordinary savers. Working class Americans won't have to hire expensive financial advisors or go to Wall St. to take advantage of the tax system. They will be able to save tax deferred for anything: college, house down payment, medical emergencies, long vacation, car, sharks with lasers, whatever. And with the income tax gone, people will pay off their homes quicker, giving the investor class one less source of easy income.
(I have mixed feelings about the Fair Tax. I like the simplicity and some of the good features above. I also wonder about enforcement issues, and thus I am working on my own tax reform proposals.)
This Fair Tax fandom can lead to two hugely important things for progressives: a universal basic income and a carbon tax. The original Fair Tax creators included a small basic income; they call it a "prebate" and mean it to replace the personal exemption, standard deduction and lower tax brackets for the working poor. This could be a foot-in-the-door for something more substantial.
A national sales tax would also be a sales tax on fossil fuels. Given the low profit margins of the energy companies, and the high revenue/labor factor, a national sales tax might well act as a carbon tax. (I'll leave this as a question for the trained economists in the audience.) It would definitely be a tax increase on imported oil. Once again, we have a foot-in-the-door opportunity. As I mentioned above, a high national sales tax has enforcement problems. It's too easy to just sell in cash and not report it to the government. But it is very hard to hide an oil tanker, a refinery, or a trainload of coal! Excise taxes on fossil fuels are an easy way to tax the economy via a few collection points.
Here's the kicker, Gary Johnson said he was open to a universal basic income to simplify the welfare system, and he'd consider a carbon tax as well. Some support and pressure from enviro-progressives could do interesting things"
But you won't get socialized medicine under a Johnson Administration, so adjust your quality-of-platform factor accordingly.
If either Jill Stein or Gary John (or both) get in the debates, many undecided voters will change their minds. Hillary Clinton is shrill, unlikeable, and untrustworthy. Donald Trump is a clownish super villain. Even though Johnson is bashful and not bubbling with charisma, he easily wins votes against this pair.
Dr. Stein may have a more winning personality. I admit I haven't done my homework here. But Johnson has several qualities that give him a factor of ten edge in terms of winnability:
1. Both Johnson and his running mate Bill Weld are former governors. Americans have long considered state governor to be useful experience for becoming President. In terms of resume, the Libertarian ticket beats both the Green and Republican tickets.
2. The Libertarian Party will have more ballot access. The LP has some hardcore activists who are willing to drop everything and travel a thousand miles to stand in front of grocery stores to gather signatures. Nobody else has such a devoted and experienced cadre in this area.
3. The Never Trump movement is for real. National Review ran an entire issue against Trump, and at least least one article endorsing Johnson. Red State has run multiple front page articles endorsing Johnson. Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush are on the record as Never Trump, and Romney came very close to endorsing the LP ticket. (He said he would have if Weld was at the top.) Several Republican state legislators and political consultants have come out for the Johnson/Weld ticket as well as one sitting Congressman to date. This a substantial voting block available to Johnson but not at all available to Stein. The Never Trump Republicans would vote for Hillary before Stein.
Successful electoral politics is about building coalitions, not about simply voicing your wish list. Usually it is the Libertarians who fail to make this distinction, but not this year. Let's compare potential coalitions:
Jill Stein: Burned Bernie voters + Not-Hillary Democrats + hardcore Greens + independents disgusted with the major party candidates and charmed by Dr. Stein's personality.
Gary Johnson: Burned Bernie voters + libertarians + Never Trump Republicans + independents disgusted with the major party candidates and impressed with Johnson's record and/or personality.
Even if Johnson wins a smaller portion of the Burned Bernie voters, this is still a much bigger potential coalition. The core of the Democratic Party is behind Hillary. There are few not-Hillary Democrats other than the Burned Bernie voters. It would take a truly colossal scandal, on the order of Hillary Clinton kidnapping Dalmatian puppies to make a fur coat, in order for Dr. Stein to have a winning coalition.
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