Indeed, the 2010 senate races have the Democrats well positioned. They will be defending 17 seats and the Republicans will be defending 19 seats. Already, five Republicans have already announced they are not running, which greatly increases the odds of those seats flipping. And, no Democrats are retiring.
The five states with no incumbent – Delaware, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and Kansas – also help Dems. Ohio has been moving Democrat since the corruption of the Taft era. Delaware is very likely to stay Democrat with Beau Biden, the VP’s son as the likely heir. And, recent polls in traditionally Republican Kansas show a close race between the leading candidates. Sen. Mel Martinez is retiring at the end of his term, which will set off a free for all for this competitive Senate seat. No strong Republican has come forward, so this is up for grabs. Four-term senator Kit Bond has decided to retire in Missouri. The Dems have a strong contender in Robin Carnahan, the current secretary of state who comes from a strong Missouri political family.
One challenge for the Democrats is the appointed senators who filled vacancies due to Obama nominations. The Clinton replacement, Kirsten Gillibrand, will seek the two years left on Clinton's six-year term, and then turn right around and run again in 2012. Obama's own seat in Illinois, now filled temporarily by the controversial Roland Burris could be a challenge, but it is looking less and less likely that Burris will run. That should increase Democrats chance of retaining the seat. And, the Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar's seat in Colorado, now filled on an interim basis by Michael Bennet, were both due for a regular six-year-term election in 2010.
In 2012 things switch and begin to favor the Republicans in the senate. In that year 24 Democrats (including Lieberman and Sanders) are up for re-election and only 9 Republicans. So, one-party rule could be short-lived. Continuing to keep power after 2012 is going to require the Democrats to pass legislation that is more populist in nature. They will have to stop their tilt toward Wall Street and militarism and instead invest in policies that allow the working class to build a stronger wallet. Thus, the conflict in the Democratic Party will be clearer – the monied interests that fund the party and the peoples interests that vote for the party. The Dems will finally be forced to choose.
But for now, the Dems are on a path to one party rule that should last at least three years. And, if they find a way to break with their corporate backers and put in place populist economic policies, they could have a much longer run.
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