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Revolution in Central Asia: Who's Next?

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Message James Stafford

This is not the first time Kyrgyzstan experiences a spring-cleaning revolution. Almost exactly five years ago, the 2005 Tulip Revolution ousted then President Askar Akayev under allegations of widespread corruption and cronyism. Bakiyev fell for the same ills, the resentment being exacerbated by an authoritarian drift that led to the shutting down of independent news media, the arrest of prominent opposition leaders and blatant nepotism with Bakiyev's family securing key positions.

Bakiyev's brother Marat was serving as ambassador in Germany but will be recalled, while his brother Adyl was an advisor to the Kyrgyz ambassador in China. In October 2009, Bakiyev appointed his son Maksim to head the newly created Central Agency for Development, Investment, and Innovation (CADII) while another son worked for the National Security Service.

The Scorecard of Central Asia

Some leaders are more enlightened than others in understanding that the distribution of wealth cannot just benefit a small minority: enabling their population to become more prosperous like in Kazakhstan allows everyone to see opportunities and not feel excluded. Central Asia is burdened by a ruling class and elite with vested interests, creating a natural brake to any efforts to change the way things are done.

Change can unleash unforeseen events and the fear of its consequences explains the efforts made to maintain the status quo. Allowing too much democracy and dissenting voices to be heard is equivalent to opening a Pandora box: too much transparency coupled with greater accountability leads to questions that challenges and weakens the legitimacy of the governments in place.

Looking at the levels of freedom and corruption and at the ease of doing business are good indicators of where Central Asian countries stand, even if some ratings are perception indexes. These reports can convey a bleak picture of Central Asian countries and are partially unfair as each country has some potential and there are many Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, Turkmens and Uzbeks that strive to abide by high standards and who can be trustworthy partners. Changing a system is not easy.

Freedom

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I have an interest in the financial markets, commodities and Geopolitics.
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