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Popular Vote Blowout Predicted by Early October Poll: Obama Wins Popular Vote

By       Message Frank Murphy     Permalink
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 46.1 McCain

 52% Obama

***Margin of error for Obama = sqrt[(.498*(1-.498))/976] = .0016

scale it by 100 to convert to percent and multiply by 2 to get 95% CI

McCain's 43.9% is outside the 95% confidence interval of 46.6 to 53, thus, we conclude
that Obama has a statistically significant lead as of this early October poll.

A lot can happen in the last month, but we could use this result as one of many possible predictions for popular vote.

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Obama 49.8%*
McCain 43.9%


*Obama's lead is statistically significant at p<.05  


Note: I have actual access to the poll and used SPSS to do this analysis.

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Frank Murphy is a doctoral candidate in sociology at a university in New England whose research interests include racism and political sociology.

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