It's obvious from the projections made in 2007 that the data guys at the BLS used the always-ready method of extrapolation based on recent trends. They evidently didn't anticipate a recession between 2007 and 2016. It is highly unlikely that we will add 3 million jobs per year for the next seven years. It is a practical impossibility for construction jobs to grow by 40%, professional services jobs by 30% or finance jobs by 25%. While the BLS data shows an increase in total government jobs, within the data was a laughable projection that those gains would come at the state and local levels, but that Federal Government jobs would actually fall by 149,000 between 2006 and 2016. Not if the Obama administration has anything to say about it.
The BLS list of fastest-growing occupations between 2006 and 2016 paints a disturbing picture. Among the 30 fastest-growing occupations, I could only find two that produce something of long-lasting value (network systems and data communications analysts and computer software engineers). The list is littered with the likes of:
- Personal and home care aides
- Home health aides
- Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors
- Skin care specialists
- Gaming surveillance officers and gaming investigators
- Mental health counselors
- Mental health and substance abuse social workers
- Gaming and sports book writers and runners
- Manicurists and pedicurists
- Environmental science and protection technicians, including health
By the above list, it would appear that we are destined to become a nation of sickly obese people confined to our homes, with good skin and nails, playing the lottery but mentally impaired from worrying about global warming.
The truth is that the BLS has no clue where growth will come from. Many of the industries and jobs of the future haven't yet been imagined.
One likely candidate is nanotechnology. Something as game-changing as the internet has been is likely to come from this area in the next decade.
And if Peak Oil pushes crude up to $200 a barrel, alternative energy will become a growth industry even without force-feeding from the government. (Bet against anything that relies entirely on government subsidies to be economic, e.g., ethanol.) Research into algae as an energy source could be a winner. Geothermal power and ocean wave power are other areas that hold promise. The widespread use of mini-nuclear plants has excellent prospects.
The aging of the baby boomers is a given, which means that medical technology is a growth area, provided the government healthcare "reform" doesn't turn it into a dead industry.
An aging country dependent upon oil and debt for sustenance is not the ideal place to invest, and that may be the conclusion that many come to, giving a boost to emerging economies. Domestically, technology including medical technology - and alternative energy look to provide the best chance for the United States to regain some of its lost prosperity, and therefore are potential areas of focus for investors.
This article was originally published in the October, 2009 edition of the Casey Report. To see my latest article on the coming crash in China in the February edition of the Casey Report, sign up for 3 free months here: http://www.caseyresearch.com/
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