Shrewd
politicians have also got their eye on
the record number of declared non-voters
(over 30%, a record in Italian politics), but the feeling is that as political
activity gains momentum this number is
bound to shrink.
The
occult aim of a number leading political
figures appears to be the creation of a
hung Parliament, given the apparent impossibility of any one of the
players to form a significant majority
in both Houses. The President, Giorgio
Napolitano, could thus move to renew the Monti experience, this time,
however, giving the Government a more
political character. As an alternative, a mixed Parliament could hold together
just long enough to elect Monti as President of the Republic (Napolitano's
mandate expires in April), and then proceed to new, even more uncertain
elections.
The pattern
is neither unexpected nor accidental and appeared with some clarity as early as
the Spring of 2011, when the Italian Bishops' Conference, acting in harmony
with the Holy See, withdrew its support
from Berlusconi's party, thus openly encouraging the formation of a Catholic
oriented political grouping in
Parliament.
If
Berlusconi should succeed in his
come-back attempt -- which, at the moment, appears unlikely -- he could
upset this delicate balance and provoke a return to the disastrous policies
of the past.
In all
probability, however, no matter which of the other contestants should obtain a
majority in next February's elections,
the real winner will be the Roman Catholic Church, and this, of course, will
have a strong influence on Italy's internal politics, although it should not
modify the country's basically pro-European stance.
Carlo
Ungaro
+393207783160
(The author
of this submission, Ambassador Carlo Ungaro, is a retired senior Italian
Diplomatic Officer)
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