The fact is, Drug War aside, the various nations of South America and Central America are paying less and less imperial fealty to the United States. Our lion's roar is less fearsome than it was at the beginning of the 20th century, for example, when the imperialism began in earnest with the Spanish-American War. A nation like Brazil is now approaching first-world economic status, so while it did not put Ahmadinejad on its invite list this trip, it's looking at the US as more of an equal. The Iranian president is only visiting the nation's most hostile to the US giant.
The trend toward independence in Latin America has been going on for over a decade. The exception to the rule is the US client state of Colombia, a well-financed fortress nation friendly to the American right sitting on the north coast of South America right next to Venezuela. Colombia has it's own issues with drugs on both the political left and right. Lately, the FARC rebels have been significantly checked in by the Colombian military.
With Cuba under Raul Castro working to moderate its image and slowly injecting free enterprise into its system, Venezuela has become the vanguard for anti-US rhetoric and posturing. Tensions between it and Colombia are significant. Both nations feel the need to firm up their security forces, and as far as Colombia goes, the US is delighted to help with programs like Plan Colombia that pump into Colombia billions of US tax dollars and -- our specialty -- sophisticated weaponry.
The US, of course, would like to see Hugo Chavez disappear. He's a brilliant politician and has survived as president [4] since 1999. He is to face re-election this year. His party controls the Supreme Court, the legislature and all federal bureaucracies. An opposition candidate for president is running close in polls. Opponents are scared that if Hugo loses the election, the army under Senor Rangel will take over the nation.
The US already showed its sneaky but nefarious hand in a 2002 coup attempt to overthrow Hugo that failed. The Obama administration also behaved quite shamefully in the 2009 successful coup in Honduras, in which US elements either helped arrange it or, at best, stood back and knowingly let it happen without as much as a peep of concern.
The real question is will Hugo Chavez make it to the election in October this year? One doctor who treated him in the past said his cancer was in the pelvic area and was "very aggressive." Another said he had two years to live max. Chavez claims he's cancer free. He reportedly passed up on treatment in Brazil because it would mean public disclosure of his disease. Other reports say he has been taking lowered doses of chemo in order to be able to govern. A replacement candidate for the theatrical Hugo would likely not have the popularity he is able to muster. It's a fact, Hugo Chavez is fearless and an amazing survivor. So stay tuned.
Meanwhile, the vultures in Caracas and Washington are waiting.
Is it time for a new diplomatic approach to Latin America?
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