Other than grasping that Eurasia is an important area of the world in terms of geography and resources, Zbig has done a rather poor job of predicting the dynamics that appear to be playing out in the past few years in the region. His tired misrepresentations of Russia's actions in relation to its neighbors over the past 8 years makes one wonder if Zbig has ceased to simply be a purveyor of propaganda on behalf of his own agenda, and has actually started to believe his own hogwash. As a case in point, Zbig states the following in his second verity:
...currently it [Russia] is pointlessly alienating some of its former subjects in the Islamic southwest of its once extensive empire, as well as Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia, not to mention the Baltic States.
I've written extensively on Zbig's lies and misrepresentations with respect to both the Ukraine crisis and the Russia-Georgia war of 2008. Zbig doesn't explain how Russia is alienating Belarus. And it's also unclear what credible designs Russia could have on the Baltic states, which - no offense to anyone living in the Baltic states - are suffering from poor economic performance, high rates of youth unemployment, significant emigration and have no real resources to speak of.
Later in the article, Zbig makes another nonsensical statement with respect to Russia and Putin:
A constructive U.S. policy must be patiently guided by a long-range vision. It must seek outcomes that promote the gradual realization in Russia (probably post-Putin) that its only place as an influential world power is ultimately within Europe.
First of all, Putin has stated that Russia is a European nation. He has also made many attempts to reach a diplomatic accommodation with Europe in connection with both security and economic issues. It is Europe, often under pressure from Washington, that effectively tells Putin to talk to the hand. If it wasn't for Washington's strong-arming the EU into the sanctions in retaliation for an understandable response to a provocative coup in Ukraine, Russia's economic relations with Europe would have continued apace and its pivot to Asia would not have been as quick or robust.
Furthermore, given Zbig's notorious Russophobia and his Grand Chessboard theory, it is implausible that he wants to see a Russia integrated with Europe in any substantive way because it would represent an independent entity that would be too competitive with the U.S.
Zbig also repeats a belief often heard among mainstream analysts that China and Russia will not be able to have any effective partnership in the long run due to China's potential future designs on Russian territory:
Russia's own future depends on its ability to become a major and influential nation-state that is part of a unifying Europe. Not to do so could have dramatically negative consequences for Russia's ability to withstand growing territorial-demographic pressure from China, which is increasingly inclined as its power grows to recall the "unequal" treaties Moscow imposed on Beijing in times past.
There is no substantive evidence that China would do anything of the sort in connection with Russia - a nuclear superpower and, as Obama begrudgingly admitted recently, the world's second most powerful military. There is simply no reason to believe that China's leadership is that stupid or crazy.
Of course, Russia and China (and also India) want a prominent role in their own backyard. I see no reason to believe that there may not be bumps in the road in sorting out the regional balance of power in the future. However, just because Washington sees foreign relations as a zero-sum game, does not mean that other countries and their leadership see it the same way.
As journalist and geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar has written about extensively, China has an ambitious plan known as "One Belt, One Road" which envisions a new silk road by land and sea, connecting Asia with Europe in a mutually beneficial program of trade and travel. Several corridors of this project are in progress. It has been announced this year that the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, aka EEU) will work cooperatively with the New Silk Road project.
Currently, the relationship between Russia and China is not an all-out alliance but it is a strategic partnership that is growing in terms of economics, military and even intelligence sharing.
Oil also features prominently in the increasingly symbiotic dynamics between the two countries. As Tao Wang explained recently at the East Asia Forum:
The catalyst for better relations was the crisis in Ukraine, which estranged Russia from the West. Moscow faced substantial capital outflows and uncertainty around its energy exports to the European Union. China became the only option. Moscow has since opened up to energy investment from China, removing a number of key restrictions on investing in oil and gas resources on Russian soil.
Increasing oil imports from Russia seems to make good sense to the Chinese leadership now that their territorial dispute with multiple countries in the South China Sea is intensifying.
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