On Oct. 18, ten days before the "October surprise," Clinton was ahead by 6.5 points, or nearly 15%. Two days before the Comey statement, Clinton was ahead by 5.6 points.
After the FBI intervention, the polls show that the gap closed rapidly:
on the 29th, they closed to 4.3, then on the 31st, they had closed to 2.2. By Nov. 7, the gap had slightly widened to 3.2, as Clinton actually won by 1.7 votes.
There may have been other significant variables, but there is strong evidence the last FBI email revelation was the key factor. On Oct 31, just a few days after the FBI statement, the Guardian reported:
'A week ago, the US election looked to be over. Hillary Clinton was riding so high in the polls after a disastrous series of gaffes by Donald Trump that few could conceive of a Republican path to victory on 8 November. Friday's shock intervention by the FBI may not be enough to change that outcome on its own, but it has certainly set political imaginations running wild.........One reputable survey that got close, an ABC News-Washington Post tracking poll released on Sunday, showed just a one-point overall lead for Clinton. It asked some voters on Friday evening what they thought and found the news had mostly hardened existing opinions but could also play a role at the margins.
"About a third of likely voters say they are less likely to support Clinton given FBI director James Comey's disclosure," said pollster Gary Langer. "Given other considerations, 63% say it makes no difference."
The ABC/Washpo poll is rated A+ by 538, based on its high degree of accuracy. It had Trump winning a week before the election, and its last poll had Clinton winning by 1 point in the popular vote. It found a huge loss of support for Clinton after the FBI disclosure.
The evidence is not proof that the FBI intervention caused Trump to surge, but it provides an explanation that no other can match.
I think it reasonable to conclude that the FBI, with its disdain for Clinton, played an important role in helping Trump win.
Trump, in the campaign, made a strong pitch to get law enforcement support. "I am the law and order candidate."
Those now claiming the FBI is lying because it dislikes Trump have no evidence for this claim. The FBI disliked Clinton and did not look forward to working for her; they much preferred the law and order candidate, and their contribution to his victory is based on the fact that the wide Clinton lead, enough to stave off the Electoral reversal, decreased quickly after the FBI disclosure.
I see the fight between the intelligence agencies and Trump as political theater, a distraction. Trump himself said, "I am a big fan of intelligence," while pretending to mock them. I think he sees intelligence as part of law and order and is using the "conflict" as a weapon of mass distraction.
Intelligence is having it both ways: asserting a Russian intervention, as Trump himself had requested, and stating they have no evidence it affected the election. This satisfies both sides and gives Trump a way to support the intelligence, since "it had nothing to do with the election."
To which I say: wink wink.
(Article changed on January 8, 2017 at 21:02)
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