The Morsi government's fear is well founded. Egypt has long been a difficult country to govern without the consent of its people unless rulers can call on a powerful army. Its population of 83 million is concentrated in a few urban areas, the Delta, the narrow strip of land bordering the Nile, and several cities in the Canal Zone.
That concentration makes demonstrations formidable, as the Mubarak government found out in 2011. The Morsi government recently discovered that fact when it sentenced 21 soccer fans to death for their part in a 2012 riot in Port Said that killed 74 people. Port Said exploded at the verdict.
With the police overwhelmed -- and on strike -- Morsi was forced to call in the Egyptian Army to confront the rioters, but military commanders were less than happy at being caught between the demonstrators and the government. "The Egyptian armed forces is a combat institution not a security institution," grumbled Gen. Ahmed Wasfi, head of the Army division sent into Port Said. "No one can imagine the Army replacing the Interior Ministry."
Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi warned the Morsi government not to try and "brotherhoodise" the military, and also hinted darkly that the continued unrest could bring about a possible "collapse of the state." It was a sobering statement from an institution that has intervened on other occasions in Egypt, including during the 1952 coup/ revolution that put Gamal Abdel Nasser into power.
As long as Mubarak controlled the army, he could rule Egypt. When the army stepped back in 2011, the government fell.
It is an old story. Ancient Egypt was one of the few areas in the Roman Empire that required two full legions just to keep the peace. And the Romans found that when Egyptians got riled, it was best to back off and cut a deal. Cleopatra used the power of Egypt's population to hold off Roman rule for more than two decades. It is a force that no government can afford to take lightly.
It is no secret that the U.S. is not overly enthusiastic about the Morsi government. During his recent visit, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry offered aid -- and a modest $250 million at that -- but only if the government instituted "painful" austerity measures and kept Cairo's foreign policy consistent with Washington's. The U.S. has the most powerful voice in the IMF -- it outvotes Japan, Germany and France combined -- and the fact that the lending organization demands essentially parallel those made by Kerry is hardly coincidence.
The oil-rich monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the U.S.'s major allies in the Middle East, have been telling Washington "We told you so" about Islamic governments, and GCC member Qatar, which initially pledged $4.3 billion in aid, has yet to make good on it. Qatar and other GCC nations have also reneged on an economic assistance package.
Morsi's government is hardly radical. Its economic policies reflect its urban professional roots, and what MB business leader Hassan Malek calls "capitalism with attention to the poor," a pledge that will be hard to reconcile with the IMF's formula.
But Egypt has adopted a foreign policy that is not always in perfect alignment with Washington, including re-establishing relations with Iran and sharpening the criticism of Israel for its occupation of the West Bank and Golan Heights.
The U.S. has traditionally been more comfortable with authoritarian governments in the Middle East than democratic or Islamic ones, and it has influence with the Egyptian military through its $1.3 billion in yearly aid.
Are the statements by Egypt's opposition concerning the possibility of a military takeover simply a political maneuver aimed at forcing the Morsi government to be more inclusive, or are they laying a foundation for a coup? Loose talk about an Army takeover in Egypt is a little like hand-feeding a crocodile: a good way to lose a body part.
Why is the IMF ignoring its own findings on austerity to push a program that can only ignite massive resistance? And why is the U.S. piling on?
Egypt is looking at a summer of higher food prices, rising unemployment, blackouts, fuel shortages, and growing political unrest. If the country were a chessboard, it looks like a lot of pieces are lining up for an assault on the king.
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