Trump's subsequent histrionics over North Korea over its provocative tests have made real the possibility of miscalculation. This is a dangerous time.
TJC: Do you see much chance of a trade war between the US and China?
JP: No. Their interdependence has never been greater. Trump's election campaign threat to impose 40 percent tariffs on certain Chinese imports came to nothing. Again, the real threat is a mistaken or accidental missile launch on China -- for example, from the US's newly-installed THAAD "defence system" in South Korea. The unspoken issue is the Pentagon, which has had unprecedented power in Washington since 9/11, especially since Obama's presidency.
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