If that weren't enough, impeachment must overcome the dread of Mike Pence. Author and professor Noam Chomsky tells me, "The top ground for getting rid of Trump is that he is carrying out policies designed to undermine the prospects for organized human life in the near future, and is doing so consciously he understands the effects of global warming very well, as he and his administration have demonstrated. Whether this is grounds for impeachment can be argued, but it would do not good, because it would bring in Pence who is as bad or maybe even worse, because unlike Trump he is a 'true believer,' and if God tells him to proceed to destroy, so be it."
Would it do no good? As opponents of impeachment are also very fond of pointing out, winning a conviction in the Senate would require a major transformation of U.S. politics the sort of transformation that televised impeachment hearings could bring about, the sort of transformation that could leave a President Pence weaker than a President Gerald Ford and wary of facing his own impeachment. Yet, rather than highlighting the existing facts, or producing new ones, such as Trump's tax returns, Committee Chairs are complaining that Trump is refusing their requests for documents. An impeachment inquiry would produce those documents or new articles of impeachment for each subpoena not complied with.
I asked Congresswoman Tlaib if she expects the White House will comply with Congressional subpoenas if the President believes he will not be impeached. She replied: "They have not yet."
There is also the option of impeaching Pence first. Early in the Bush-Cheney era, I met with several Congress Members and impeachment activists to brainstorm. Congresswoman Maxine Waters proposed impeaching Dick Cheney first. The idea was generally welcomed. But Congresswoman Barbara Lee stopped everyone by insisting that Congressman John Conyers would need to approve. Conyers followed the wishes of Pelosi, who has consistently opposed impeachment for Bush, Cheney, Kavanaugh, and Trump.
Congressman Dennis Kucinich introduced articles of impeachment against both Bush and Cheney, including 35 articles against Bush that I had led a team of experts in drafting. But much of the Democratic Caucus and Judiciary Chair Conyers refused to budge.
What if the House had impeached Bush or Cheney, and the Senate failed to convict? We can't answer that with certainty, but we do know what the failure to impeach them led to, what the failure to impeach Reagan for Iran-Contra led to, and what failure to impeach Trump is likely to lead to.
John Nichols thinks we should consult a better understanding of history. "We have never removed a president at the conclusion of an impeachment process," he tells me. "We have had a president resign when faced with the prospect of removal. And the simple threat of hearings usually coming in the context of a broader outcry has caused presidents to alter policies and, I believe, rethink prospective reelection runs. By any measure, hearings, in and of themselves, have the potential to constrain and conclude a lawless presidency. More importantly, hearings set a standard for when and how future presidents can be called to account. Hearings are, to my mind, essential to addressing the high crimes and misdemeanors of the sitting president AND to setting the standards that might prevent future presidents from committing high crimes and misdemeanors."
Congresswoman Tlaib told me that she doubted an impeachment effort would lead to Trump complying with the law, including the Constitution's emoluments clauses, but that, "as important is putting any future CEO who wants to become president of the United States on notice that he/she won't get away with direct conflicts of interests and violations to Constitutional clauses without Congress investigating and holding all those involved accountable."
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