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Robert Pollin
Absolutely you're right, because at least if you have centralized big reactors, then you know how to
protect them. If you spread out the reactors all over the place, then yes, you're increasing the difficulty
of seriously regulating.
And again, nuclear power has been around for, what, 15 years. And the costs, according to the Energy
Department, the Trump administration's Energy Department, the cost of nuclear to generate a unit
kilowatt of electricity are roughly double that of solar, wind, and geothermal. So of course, we can
improve those technologies, especially around storage, but why wouldn't we go with these technologies
that are safe, that work perfectly fine right now, as opposed to emphasizing carbon capture and
nuclear? Well, we know the answer. The answer for carbon capture is that's the way that the fossil fuel
industry is going to survive. So that's what's going on there.
Paul Jay
I think we should highlight that there is another, I guess it's a form of carbon capture, which is
mentioned in the plan, but not highlighted and emphasized to the extent I would think it should be, and
that's planting trees and restorative agriculture. They mention it, but it's just part of a grocery list of
things. And you take this massive investment of 500 billion a year and the question is, what are they
going to spend it on? You would spend it on retrofitting buildings, which they do talk about, which
obviously needs to be done. But then it's about investing in new sustainable energy sources, wind and
solar primarily. And then it is all about restorative agriculture and lots of trees, because if you want to
suck carbon out of the air, you've got to suck it out of the atmosphere, not keep fossil fuel going.
Robert Pollin
Yeah, reforestation and organic agriculture, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, as you cited, IPCC, it's reasonable to think that through investments and reforestation and
organic agriculture, we can reduce emissions in the range of 20% of where we have to be. So it is a
major part of the solution, 20% is a big part of the solution, but the other 80% has to come from raising
efficiency standards and transitioning to renewables.
If we're going to focus on carbon capture, which, as I said, is an unproven technology despite decades of
efforts, and is essentially a way through which to keep the fossil fuel industry going, and it's a way
through which you maintain the extreme danger that would come through leakages of this captured
carbon, you are really going off track and you're not investing the way that we need to invest.
The way we need to invest is to massively expand efficiency, massively expand solar, wind, geothermal,
and invest in reforestation and organic agriculture.
Paul Jay
I'll just quote again from when you go down the list of the recommendations, this issue of
decarbonization, carbon capture is at the heart of this whole plan. They talk about decarbonizing
industrial heat needed to make steel, concrete, and chemicals, re-imagining carbon-neutral construction
materials. I don't know what time frame they think that's going to take place. And then they have
capturing carbon dioxide from power plant exhaust, followed by sequestering it deep underground, or
using it to make alternative products.
And again, there's no such technology that's actually effective right now, maybe there will be in the
future, but there's some rhetoric at the beginning of the plan that gives you the impression that they
understand the urgency of all this.
When you get into this issue of carbon capture and these other issues we're talking about, the time
frame just doesn't seem to have any sense of urgency, which goes back to what you said early on. I'm
not sure if you said this to me while we were talking online or offline, but they still seem to think the
Paris agreement timeline means something.
Robert Pollin
Yeah, they do cite the Paris agreement, and they say that under Biden, we're going to rejoin Paris, which
again, relative to Trump is an improvement since Trump has already pulled the U.S. out of the Paris
agreement. But as you said, and I think you told the story very well, I mean, the shocking news that is
almost never discussed is if everybody follows the Paris agreement, which they're not doing, especially
the US, if everybody follows it, there's no chance for us hitting any emission targets.
I mean, this is recognized by the International Energy Agency, which is the largest body doing energy
modeling other than the US Energy Department. If you look at their own model that incorporates all the
countries doing everything they say they're going to do under the Paris agreement, in 20 years, we
reduce emissions, well, we actually increase emissions absolutely from about 33 billion tons to about 37
billion tons, so emissions would be going up.
They only go down modestly relative to doing almost nothing. So the Paris agreement is extremely
flimsy. It's not the foundation for accomplishing anything. At the same time, we do have the
technologies. This is not a massive technological challenge. We have the solar technology, we have the
wind technology, we have the efficiency technology, and we know how to plant trees and do organic
agriculture. Of course, we can improve them. But the main thing is to move these technologies to scale.
And when I talk about the 500 or so billion dollars a year, that's really the thrust of the agenda that I
think is necessary.
Paul Jay
Now, there was a recognition, that's why there was a Paris agreement, but this had to be part of a global
agreement. I mean, even if the United States hit every target imaginable, which is unlikely if the rest of
the world isn't doing the same, then it's not going to mean that much.
So when you come down to it, the two biggest economies in the world, or maybe three, if you take the
E.U. as one economy, which it kind of is, but still, the relationship between the United States and China,
and some kind of agreement on climate, is going to be critical in this game going on for years. You have
the anti-climate change people, not only are they in denial of the science, but one of their arguments
always is, "well, it's just going to make us uncompetitive with China, if China doesn't do it, why should
we," and you get this childish game that goes on.
But what's been happening in terms of the U.S. China relationship is, not only has Trump inflamed and
intensified the rivalry, but Biden's coming in with similar rhetoric. In fact, he's even trying to be more
"militant", quote-unquote, about China than Trump.
And one of the things that jumped out at me in this plan was the extent of several paragraphs of an
attack on China. Here's one quote from the agreement, it goes, "Biden will stop China from subsidizing
coal exports and outsourcing carbon pollution. China is far and away the largest emitter of carbon in the
world, and through its massive belt and road initiative, Beijing is also annually financing billions of
dollars of dirty fossil fuel energy projects across Asia and beyond. Biden will rally a united front of
nations to hold China accountable to high environmental standards in its belt and road initiative
infrastructure projects so that China can't outsource pollution to other countries"", and then further
down Biden calls for the United States and its allies offering alternative financing to the countries that
are buying into the Belt and Road initiative so that they don't have to be part of this climate villain in
China's plan. What do you make of this? You know, China is the villain of the piece here.
Robert Pollin
It's true. China is now the largest emitter of emissions and the US is second in absolute terms. In per
capita terms, in other words, how much the average person is contributing to emissions, emissions in
China are about 1/3 that of the United States. So that to portray China as the big villain in the whole
story ignores the fact that on average, people in the United States are emitting 3 times the amount of
China.
Moreover, of course, we know that in terms of income distribution, the people in the top 1% of the total
global income distribution are emitting about 170 times more emissions than the lowest 10%. So, China
is not the big villain. China could do a lot better, there's no question about it, and they must, but
everybody must. But to portray China as being the main cause of the problem is grossly inaccurate for
today's world, but is even more so if we look at the historical pattern as to how our atmosphere got
loaded up with greenhouse gases in the first place.
If we look at the entire era of industrial development, then about 80% of all emissions up through the
year 1980 are really due to the United States, Europe, and Japan, not China, not India, none of the
developing economies. So it's not their fault, and to portray it that way is obviously going to create a
huge distraction. And it is unfair, it's unjustified. On top of that, when when I told you that the costs of
solar have come down by over 70% in just the last seven years, the single most important reason for
that is because China is producing solar panels, and they are effective solar panels and they're producing
them cheaply.
Now, sure, the United States should get in on it. We should have an industrial policy that will enable us
to compete with China in doing something good, like producing solar energy at low cost that everybody
can afford and that can be easily installed anyplace in the United States and China everywhere in the
world. So let's let China and the United States compete over that and drive down the price of solar, and
not worry about this rhetoric, which is obviously just intended to, again, portray China as being the chief
villain in the story, which they're not.
Paul Jay
Now, China is expanding its coal production, which is something, if they understand climate science, and
they seem to, why are they? Don't they have alternatives to the expansion of coal?
Robert Pollin
So China has been operating on two tracks for some time now, which is they want to be ahead of
everybody and the biggest manufacturer of clean energy technology, and they're pretty much getting
there, and they keep building coal plants because right now it's still the case that coal plants are very
cheap, easy, the technology is well known, and they don't want to slow down development to wait for
having to develop solar technology, wind technology at scale. They're doing both things at the same
time.
So, in fact, the largest proportion of all the solar panels that are being built in China are really being built
for the global market. So that is a massive deficiency with China. So if we're going to criticize China, let's
criticize them for that.
And let's tell China that, you, China, and we, the United States, are going to compete to deliver
affordable, renewable energy, clean energy to developing countries, to sub-Saharan Africa, for example,
where 50% of the rural population has no access to electricity, as of right now. So let's deliver 100%
clean energy to sub-Saharan Africa so that, by the way, then they don't have to keep burning wood as an
energy source, which is a very dirty source of energy.
Paul Jay
What I didn't see in the plan, and maybe I missed it because I haven't read every word of the Biden plan,
but is a call for a new global treaty on climate, essentially like the Paris, but with actual, enforceable,
legally enforceable, binding commitments, and more importantly, targets that are scientifically justified.
And as we've discussed a couple of times already, Paris didn't do it. So what would do it?
I mean, my understanding is what science is saying is you can't hit 1.5, and we have less than a decade
to prevent that from happening, assuming we actually can, because some people think it's even too late
to prevent it. But one way or the other, the urgency is 1.5, not this 2Â degrees in 2050 business of Paris.
That doesn't happen without a U.S.-China agreement. That doesn't happen without a global agreement.
And there's no way you get to a global agreement with this kind of rhetoric which is intensifying against
China. China's not changing its strategy on coal because the US threatens it. If it does it, it does it as part
of a collaborative global agreement.
Robert Pollin
Yeah, well, I think the only way that we hit anything like the IPCC's emission reduction targets, which are
45% emissions, with a global emission reduction of CO2, carbon dioxide, emissions by 2030, and net-
zero by 2050. OK, so if we're going to focus on those, basically we have to assume that, yes, the US and
China and Europe are going to have to finance a whole lot of this because not just China, if we just focus
on China, we're missing another big part of the story, which is that the developing world, which wants to
grow, if we, for example, assume that India is going to grow at even half the rate they've been growing
at for the last 20 years. And if we don't focus on what India is doing, then India alone, India, Indonesia,
Mexico, they will bust the carbon budget by themselves, even if China and the US stabilize. Because
China and the US, add them up they are 42% of emissions, global emissions, China, the US, and Europe
are 55% of the emissions. So, we already have 45% of emissions outside the US, China, and Europe. So
what we have to do is get the high-income countries, Europe, the United States, to finance clean energy
investments in the developing world.
And that really has to be central. China has to be committed to it, but again, not just China, China, the
United States, and Europe. And the way that you mentioned, thank you, the book that Noam Chomsky
and I have coming out next month. We talk about a financing program, and we do talk about eliminating
all fossil fuel subsidies, and that's good, that'll get us some of the way, that'll get us about half the way.
The only problem with that is a lot of the fossil fuel subsidies are really subsidies for poor people to get
cheap energy. So if you're going to take away the fossil fuel subsidies, you have to give people direct
subsidies, income subsidies so that they can survive. That's not a huge pot of money that's just there, so
we have to do some other things. We have to take money out of military budgets. I think we should
have a carbon tax, and generate revenue and discourage the fossil fuel consumption there.
And then, in addition, we do need to use the powers of the central bank, the Fed, and the European
Central Bank. We've seen just in the last six months the Federal Reserve in a crisis is coming up with, you
know, four trillion dollars at the drop of a hat. So they can easily finance a significant part, not just of the
US clean energy project, but a global clean energy project.
Paul Jay
Yeah, I just saw a quote from a guy who's, I forget his name, he's a senior fellow at the Peterson
Institute. And the Peterson Institute's been the home of Austerity Hawks, and "they'll reduce the debt"
and all this. And he's saying, he doesn't see where the end in sight is about how much debt there can be
right now. And yet I listen to Bloomberg Radio and you hear all kinds of Wall Street types saying, "yeah,
even more subsidies are fine, we don't have to worry about the debt." You know, it's remarkable to hear
after being clobbered by these people for so long with this rhetoric about being afraid.
So does this pandemic moment make it more difficult, or does it even make it easier to have a far more
ambitious plan than what Biden's talking about?
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