Recent developments substantiate predictions of heightened NATO casualties this year, even before planned spring and summer offensives commence.
The New Year has begun with NATO announcing the deaths of over a dozen soldiers, including six in attacks on January 11. The pace of combat deaths this year already promises a total exceeding the previous high in 2009.
The main victims of the expansion of the war in South Asia by the U.S. and NATO will remain Afghan civilians and their opposite numbers in Pakistan [8], but Western military occupation forces will not fare much better.
As deployments increase so will casualties, and both are growing steadily.
NATO Recruits Middle East Partners For Afghan War
On December 30 the Jordanian Army announced that one of its officers became the nation's first fatality in Afghanistan. Before that the United Arab Emirates was thought to be the only Arab country to supply troops to NATO for that war theater, but on the day of the loss a German news agency revealed that "NATO's website listed 90 Jordanian soldiers alongside other contributions to the multinational force." [9] It was later reported that the captain killed in Afghanistan lost his life along with seven Americans in an attack on a CIA forward operating base and was the alleged handler for what has been described as a double agent, a physician from Jordan.
Nine days after its first military loss, Jordan in the person of its foreign minister, Nasser Judeh, asserted "our presence in Afghanistan will be enhanced and increased in the coming phase. This is something that is ongoing. Jordan was one of the first countries there." [10] U.S. Secretary of State Hillary was in the nation's capital on January 8 "to discuss strategic cooperation." [11]
Jordan is a member of NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue partnership along with Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. The United Arab Emirates is a carefully cultivated NATO, American and French military ally in the Persian Gulf and a mainstay of the Alliance's Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. [12]
NATO chief Rasmussen recently gave an interview to a Danish newspaper in which he "urged Muslim nations to contribute troops for service in Afghanistan." The likely recruits are the six Arab members of the Mediterranean Dialogue and the six Gulf Cooperation Council states targeted by the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.)
Afghan War Used To Train Caucasus Armies For Local Wars
The bloc has also secured troop commitments from all three former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Azerbaijan, bordering both Iran and Russia, has doubled its contingent under pressure from NATO's Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia Robert Simmons [13] and recently the vice speaker of its parliament said "At the recent meeting of NATO foreign ministers a proposal was made to increase the number of servicemen in Afghanistan. If we receive an appeal, the issue on increasing the number of Azerbaijani servicemen in Afghanistan may be considered." [14] Azerbaijani officials, including President Ilham Aliyev, routinely threaten war with neighboring Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Georgia hosted U.S. Marines late last year to train the first new installment of troops from that nation to be deployed to Afghanistan. [15] Georgian troop strength is projected to reach 1,000 within months, thereby rendering the state the largest per capita contributor to NATO's war in Afghanistan. "By March, the Georgian contingent will become about 1,000 strong, according to the Defense Ministry." [16]
The nation's mercurial and bellicose head of state, U.S.-educated Mikheil Saakashvili, said of the Afghan deployment: "This is a unique chance for our soldiers to receive a real combat baptism. We do not need the army only for showing off at military parades." [17] Saakashvili meant that crack Georgian military forces trained by the U.S. Marine Corps and serving under NATO in Afghanistan will be better prepared for the next war with Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia when they return home.
On January 10 the first Afghanistan-bound Armenian troops "depart[ed] for Germany for training before joining the ISAF mission in Afghanistan" and "will be in Afghanistan in mid-February." [18]
Unlike its neighbors Azerbaijan and Georgia, Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), seen by many observers as a bulwark against further NATO expansion into former Soviet space. Although Armenia sent a small contingent of troops to Iraq earlier, they were deployed under a bilateral arrangement with the U.S. and did not serve under NATO command as they will in Afghanistan. Armenian troops will be the first from the CSTO to do so.
Another former Soviet republic, Estonia, a full member of NATO since 2004, announced this month that in keeping with other Alliance members and partners from five continents it was prepared to increase its Afghan war contingent. "150 soldiers from the Baltic country are involved in the conflict and it's likely that more troops are going to be sent." [19]
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