Cross-posted from The Nation
From the start of the fight against Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's
assault on labor rights, local democracy, public schools and social
services, the political strategy has been to recall at least three Republican state senators and flip control of that legislative chamber to the Democrats.
That would create a legislative check and balance on Walker and
radically shift the political dynamic in the state that has become
ground-zero in the fight not just to defend unions in Wisconsin but to
challenge the GOP austerity push nationwide.
The six Democratic primaries being held Tuesday in Wisconsin state Senate districts begin the recall voting process
that will play out on four separate election dates. The schedule starts
with Tuesday's primaries to nominate Democratic challengers to
Republican senators who backed Republican Governor Scott Walker's
anti-labor agenda. Next week, Republican challengers will be chosen
for two Democratic senators who have been forced into recall fights; and
a third Democratic senator (Dave Hansen of Green Bay) will face a
partisan runoff with a weak Republican challenger. On August 9, there
will be partisan runoffs for the six Republican held seats. On August
16, there will be partisan runoffs for the two Democratic seats.
It all adds up to one of the most remarkable tests of a sitting
governor's agenda -- and political staying power -- ever initiated in the
first year of the executive's four-year term.
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Yet, Tuesday's primaries are an odd start to the process, as they were forced by a Republican strategy to run "fake Democrats"
against the "real Democrats" who were recuited by and are supported by
Democratic Party leaders and unions. Wisconsin has open primaries,
however, so Republicans can vote in Democratic primaries (and vice
versa). That means that Republicans could cross over and try to nominate
a "fake Democrat." This is an unlikely, but not impossible, prospect.
By the same token, the primaries give Democrats a chance to flex their
muscles.
Here are four election-night scenarios to consider:
1. Worst-Case Scenario for Democrats
One of the "fake Democrats" beats a real Democrat. This would be a
dramatic setback and would significantly lessen prospects for flipping
control of the Senate.
It is not just that one of the prospective races is lost. The blow would be felt across the state.
This only happens if the GOP has an elaborate stealth campaign
running. I don't see it at this point, but they have not exactly played
by the rules up to this point.
2. Bad Scenario for Democrats
All the "real Democrats" win, but their numbers are just so-so. Some
of the "fake Democrats" get into the thirties and a credible case can be
made that the Democrats are weak and the Republicans are more energized
than was imagined.
Frankly, if there is a lot of GOP cross-over, it suggests that
conservatives are highly motivated. That bodes well for them in the
August runoffs, although it is not definitional.
3. Good Scenario for Democrats
"Real Democrats" win all the races by decent margins. But turnout is
not particularly high. This would suggest that "core" Democrats" and
their allies are motivated but that the broader voting populous is not.
Numbers of this sort are not a disaster, but they will be read by GOP
strategists as an argument for stepping up their work heading into
August --on the theory that relatively low Democratic turnout can be
countered.
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John Nichols, a pioneering political blogger, has written the Online Beat since 1999. His posts have been circulated internationally, quoted in numerous books and mentioned in debates on the floor of Congress.
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