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General News    H4'ed 3/27/20

The Fog of Pandemic: All the Coronavirus Statistics Are Flawed- by Derek Thompson, The Atlantic

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Read this import article. 'Many of us have heard of “the fog of war,” It refers to the idea that war is often conducted in a haze of uncertainty: when soldiers don't fully understand either their enemy’s threat or their own capacity to combat it.What we’re experiencing now is the fog of pandemic. The officials tracking COVID-19 are swimming in statistics: infection rates, case-fatality ratios, economic data. But in these early stages of the fight against the coronavirus, these figures each have their own particular limitations. We are already seeing how, in the haze of confusing data, political leaders are trying to marshal that uncertainty to override the advice of public-health experts. Indeed, President Donald Trump seems eager to seize on anything that can justify his push to reopen public life in mid-April, perhaps while daily cases are still increasing.'  

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I began teaching in 1963,; Ba and BS in Education -Brooklyn College. I have the equivalent of 2 additional Master's, mainly in Literacy Studies and Graphic Design. I was the only seventh grade teacher of English from 1990 -1999 at East Side (more...)
 

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2 people are discussing this page, with 2 comments  Post Comment


Susan Lee Schwartz

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"The U.S. is fighting a war with extreme uncertainties. It may be weeks before we know whether we are flattening the coronavirus curve, and months before we know what kind of economy we'll have in the second half of this year. But if one thing is clear, it's that American leaders cannot afford to wait around until public-health and economic data offer an exact picture. Every day that Congress debates a relief package might be the day when thousands of families run out of food and hundreds of companies verge on bankruptcy. In the fog of pandemic, action must come before perfect information."

Submitted on Friday, Mar 27, 2020 at 1:05:41 AM

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KurtB

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The media is reporting that corona cases are 'spiking' without telling you the reason is because testing is increasing. Early testing, with a limited number of test kits available, was limited to the most symptomatic and high-risk people. This produced a high mortality rate, (3-4% according to the WHO). Since mortality is deaths divided by the number of cases, as a greater number of people are tested the mortality rate will decrease. South Korea tested a much larger percentage of the population than we have and found the rate to be .8%. They also estimated that the actual number of cases is probably twice the tested amount which would halve the mortality rate to .4%. Comparing cv rates to the seasonal flu are misleading since the CDC uses projections to determine the total number of cases. They know that many people who contract the flu don't go to the doctor and get tested, they go home and stay in bed for a couple of days. They therefore estimate the total number of cases beyond the reported ones. This reduces the mortality rate for flu while mortality for the Corona virus uses only actual test results. A more concise explanation is in the WSJ:

click here

Submitted on Saturday, Mar 28, 2020 at 4:41:52 PM

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