Bloomberg's strategy of skipping early states is 'confusing' the process: Nate Silver 538's Nate Silver discusses whether he thinks a contested convention is likely in the Democratic primaries.
(Image by YouTube, Channel: FiveThirtyEight) Details DMCA
Sanders will win at least 1800 delegates, 50% chance of a majority. After winning NV, Nate Silver gives Sanders 46% to win1/2+ of pledged delegates, 40% chance that nobody will win a majority, Biden 9%. It is likely that nobody will win more than 50% of pledged delegates. Sanders has the best chance of winning delegates, 69% for winning a plurality. Biden 17%, while Bloomberg’s chances are 11%. FiveThirtyEight’s politics editor Sarah Frostenson: “Treat the forecast as a bit of an educated guess until we get more polls — the model will quickly update if new polling differs from what it expects. But the picture here isn’t all that fuzzy: Sanders is the front-runner in a race that remains extremely fluid.”
Looking ahead to Super Tuesday, Sanders is favored to win most states (79% chance California~61% Texas~81% Colorado. 2 Super Tuesday states where Sanders is not the favorite in MN and AL.