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General News    H3'ed 2/24/20

Nate Silver's 538 Forecasts: Bernie has the Best Chance to Win Most Delegates before Convention

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Bloomberg's strategy of skipping early states is 'confusing' the process: Nate Silver 538's Nate Silver discusses whether he thinks a contested convention is likely in the Democratic primaries.
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Sanders will win at least 1800 delegates, 50% chance of a majority. After winning NV, Nate Silver gives Sanders 46% to win1/2+ of pledged delegates, 40% chance that nobody will win a majority, Biden 9%. It is likely that nobody will win more than 50% of pledged delegates. Sanders has the best chance of winning delegates, 69% for winning a plurality. Biden 17%, while Bloomberg’s chances are 11%. FiveThirtyEight’s politics editor Sarah Frostenson: “Treat the forecast as a bit of an educated guess until we get more polls — the model will quickly update if new polling differs from what it expects. But the picture here isn’t all that fuzzy: Sanders is the front-runner in a race that remains extremely fluid.”

Looking ahead to Super Tuesday, Sanders is favored to win most states (79% chance California~61% Texas~81% Colorado. 2 Super Tuesday states where Sanders is not the favorite in MN and AL.

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Early in the 2016 Primary campaign, I started a Facebook group: Bernie Sanders: Advice and Strategies to Help Him Win! As the primary season advanced, we shifted the focus to advancing Bernie's legislation in the Senate, particularly the (more...)
 

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