Broadcast 5/7/2015 at 12:48:52 (79 Listens, 58 Downloads, 1613 Itunes)
The Rob Kall Bottom Up Radio Show Podcast
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Dr. Future, AKA Dr. Paul Tinari is a futurist, engineer and has been a consultant to NASA, the US Navy and fortune 500 corporations. He's authored the book, The JOOM Destiny-- Just On Order Making-- How 3D printing will revolutionize your world.
Rough Interview Notes-- mostly my questions-- this is only intended to be a teaser to get you to listen to the podcast.
Rob: What is 3D printing and what is JOOM
Old way to manufacture was to carve out the part or make a mold
additive manufacturing-- prints objects layer by layer-- only put down material where the object is. It's m ore energy efficient, produces less waste.
Rob: So what is JOOM?
companies, for example, GM, had to guess how many of a product they would have to produce. if they made a mistake they'd have excess inventory. With Just On Order Manufacturing you only manufacture an item when there's a paid order for it.
A car could be manufactured with a whole battery of 3D printers.
Everything will be made, only on order.
Rob: Is this process more sustainable than traditional manufacturing--
takes a million gallons of water to make a car traditionally, zero gallons by 3D printing.
And a small company can produce an object cheaper.
Rob: Does that advantage exist now?
Yes. There's a company, local motors, that prints out the parts.
Rob: What do they sell their cars for?
the cars are similar in price, but they are custom made.
Rob: I've seen samples of 3-D printing and it's mostly been small pieces of plastic. But your book envisions something far bigger-- cars, battleships, planes with 3D printing
State of the technology is where the auto industry was in 1910
there have been short visions-- like head of IBM saying there are 12 people who can use a computer.
Already the chinese have invented a 3D printer that will print out a house in 24 hours. You could have 3D printers printing out plumbing and electrical and furniture"
Imagine all the trades that be put out of work.
Rob: that's not necessarily a good thing having all those professions eliminated.
In 1900 60% worked on the land-- by 1960 two percent did
There will be new jobs around 3D printers.
There will be a growing service sector, designers of the objects-- The jobs that will be created are going to be higher level.
Rob: How will this affect the balance of trade?
When manufacturing comes back to the US, when people are producing their own toys, household items, vehicles, then you no longer need manufacturing in China. That's why China has invested billions in a 3D printing technologies. They know that this is the future.
You won't need container ships anymore.
150 200 years ago all manufacturing was made in the home. Then factories started making textiles and furniture and manufacturing moved to large, centralized facilities. Now, we'll be going back into the home and people will be making things there.
Rob: there will be millions of designs that people can download.
Right, for example, I'm going to make a website that will list thousands of spare parts
Rob: You're not going to sell parts. You're going to sell digital designs so people can print at home or at a local printing service.
Shipping companies like FedEx and UPS will not be needed as much
In the very near future, you'll go to my website, specify the scalpel you want and you'll be able to print it out as needed.
This is one of the revolutionary aspects of it
Rob: Talk about how this is a bottom-up technology-
the ordinary person in their own home can design their own toys. you don't need to build molds to build those parts. People are empowered to create stuff.
People can design their own product, like a scalpel-- using traditional method it would have taken years. Human creativity is being democratized.
Rob: tell me your naval story
When a naval task force of about 20 vessels goes out to sea they have to bring about 20 million spare parts. Absence of a spare part can threaten the mission. Three D printing would allow you to go sea with no spare parts. Now they go to sea with a computer system where all the spare parts are stored so they can print out large parts, even in titanium, turning blades, for example, or a replacement aileron.
Rob: How does that work?
imagine a printer and you have to give it toner. The toner is fed into the nozzle and the laser melts the toner onto the page. Twenty years ago no-one had laser printers in their home. Now everyone does. Same thing is going to
In 3D printers the raw material is sintered metal. The laser melts the metal. With titanium or metal alloys.
Rob: And this can be as strong as a conventional casting or molding technique.
It can be stronger than cast parts.
In the near future they'll be able to manufacture diamonds using molecular 3D printing.
. Rob: What are some other implications of molecular 3D printing?
This is in the future. IBM has a machine can place individual Xenon atoms"
First step is stronger materials.
Next step is biology, printing out entire DNA molecules. You could repair defects.
A whole o there area is the manufacture of food. You can take stem cells and program them to print out a heart, liver or kidney. In the very near future, you'll take a stem cell from a patient and the 3D printer will print out a fully functional liver or heart that can be implanted into a person, with no need for rejection drugs, and you have, for example, a fully functional young heart. You could reach a situation in society where people will not die.
Rob: I would imagine the one percent will have access to this first.
Rob: They've been talking about a one way trip to mars. They could bring three D printers and make things that weren't even invented before they left.
they could print out the most technologically recent parts.
Rob: But But But" some one will have to produce the raw material-- the sintered metal
They could mine the materials and produce sintered metal
Already in Australia they have fully automated mining organizations, using a robotic workforce.
Rob: what about the material-- mines produce raw materials. They'd have to be processed to produce In order to get that sintered metal, the metal has to go through the same processes as other metals.
Rob: You've said that JOOM is Not just evolutionary, but revolutionary change.
You can take an outhouse, and until the 1930s most people had outhouses-- and you can improve an outhouse-- screens, windows, but that is evolutionary. Creating a flush toilet is revolutionary technology-- operating on a brand new principal.
Rob; A car has thousands of parts. Does 3D printing assemble all the parts and then everything has to be assembled.
No. Printing can include assembly of all the parts.
Local motor produce custom made cards by 3d printing. It's very expensive,, but each iteration, the prices fall. It will be possible within five years to print a complete car for under $5000
Rob: Do you think most people will have 3D printers at home or will they go to local stores.
In the seventies computers filled a room and now more powerful ones fit in your phone.
20 years ago laser printers were $20,000. Now everyone has a laser or inkjet printer.
Rob: What's the timeframe that you think this will happen in.
The phonograph was invented by Edison in the late 1800s and lasted until the seventies.
Cassettes lasted much shorter.
Rob: Talk about food and 3D printing
Food can be printed just like any other material. You start with a stem cell from an animal-- and program it to become the target muscle.
Rob: Do you think that will cost less
Initially that will cost more, be a a novelty. it will eventually be a much more efficient way to produce food than farming.
Rob: If they use sintered metal to print metal products, what would they use to make food
They would use stem cells.
To grow meat from a cow, 99% of the energy is wasted.
There was a taste test with chefs where they were challenged to tell the diffence between farm and 3D printed steaks-- and they couldn't tell the difference.
Rob: How fast can they make a steak
right now it's pretty slow. it's done as a novelty thing to see if they could make a steak that tastes the same.
Rob: What are doctors actually using this for right now?
it's used extensively in veterinary medicine, because the FDA hasn't yet cleared it
Rob: They're doing it right now, printing bones and bladders?
Race horses that have a broken leg can have a new leg printed. The human version of it will take approval by the FDA-- it will take 5 to 10 years.
A Russian scientist is working on printing out an entire human body-- to be used for spare parts.
Or, if you got hold of a stem cell from Albert Einstein you could print out an Albert Einstein.
Rob; That's creepy.
Rob: You told me that it can cost billions to produce a plant to make cars, but you can make cars with 3D printing for tens of thousands of dollars.
the evil aspects are people making weapons. Obviously there will new types o f crime.
Rob: You talk about Ray Kurzweil and his ideas on how t he singularity occurs-- convergence of man and machine.
He envisions technology incorporated into the human body, to the point where biology and technology become indistinguishable. 3D printing will enable the singularity. You're going to have 3D printers that make other 3D printers"
Already scientists have connected two human nervous systems together.
Rob: you talk about how Artificial Intelligence machines will be able to use 3D printing to replicate themselves and make smarter versions of themselves.
That is the beginning of the singularity and it's already happening now.
Rob: but everyone is saying that it won't be long before there will be AI that is self repairing, self conscious and self-improving.
Rob: You say that JOOM is revolutionary rather than evolutionary?
the outhouse was the standard for sanitation. A flush toilet is not evolutionary-- it's revolutionary-- a brand new approach.
Smaller electronic tubes is evolutionary. Transistors are revolutionary.
Rob: on immortality
my book is the first one to talk about the how-- giving people immortality-- printing out organs, printing out new brain cells for alzheimers
able to create superior brains, geniuses on demand
Rob; That's scary.
I'm not talking about the ethics. We're going to have to think very carefully about this.
Rob: Psychopaths could create new, worse plagues
that's one of the disadvantages of the democratization of technology-- you give every weirdo the ability to create evil stuff. When you decentralize creativity you make it possible for everyone. Japanese have created artificial sperm that fertilized a functional artificial egg-- creating artificial life. A person with no mother, no father.
Rob: there are organizations and people trying to stop this revolution from happening.
City after city is trying to ban Uber-- which uses a new business model. What kind of opposition is there to this?
3D printing is unstoppable. It is going to spread very rapidly. Big companies don't take it seriously because they see it as a toy-- making small printing.
3D printing is so decentralized there's no way to stop it. There's going to be a big threat to the major
Rob: But aren't there saving in scale. You can make 10,000 sneakers, it's going to cost less than making one at a time. 3D printing can make the molds a lot cheaper. 3D is especially designed for making custom products.
Rob: So your talk about custom cars won't apply
Except custom cars will cost $5000.00. GM has an $800 cost per car for retirement pension for former employees. Eventually 3D cars will be cheaper than mass produced ones. You can simplify cars-- much simpler than an assembly.
Rob: How will JOOM impact the traditional media?
- a number of actors have been digitized-- billions of digital points of actors like Tom Cruise. so that forever more there's a copy of Tom Cruise in the computer-- that can be animated. Every time his facsimile acts in a movie he will get a royalty. With digital copies of actors and sets you can reduce costs of movies. It's the democratization of the movie making process.
Impact on people's personal lives-- imagine being able to make your own three dimensional partner, any way you want-- using a virtual reality headset and you can react any way you want.
Rob: I have a feeling that in addition to a virtual reality headset there will be a virtual reality genital-set.
Rob: I would expect that the digitization of everything that's 3D is another aspect of the technology.
Jurassic Park from first to second movie-- the density of points had increased by a factor of 100-- making more accurate movement. This is progressing every single generation is getting better.
You can now be a virtual tourist. You'll be able to play with virtual penguins. Virtual tourism will be exploding very soon. Tourism is the number one industry in the world today in terms of cash-flow.
Rob: kind of like the holodeck on Star Trek
Rob: you talk in the book about how this revolution will circumvent a lot of regulations that are in place for corporations.
This will allow ordinary people to do what now, experts do.
Consider a broken lens from your glasses. You'll enter your prescription, print it out in polycarbonate and it will cost you $.99 instead of $500 dollars.
People will be able to design their own house, their own craft
Rob: so there will be millions of designs created by experts and the printers will include artificial intelligence
People will be protected from their stupidity or ignorance.
Rob: So there might be forums where people submit designs where they can test out designs.
Rob: What kinds of regulations will there be for this?
someone tried to make it so 3D printers could not produce patented or copyrighted parts. it was so awkward, would so stymie the whole system that it was abandoned.
Information and people want to be free.
types of controls that will come in will be safety controls,
This is the greatest contribution to ground roots creativity in human history.
only 13% of corporations are thinking about how this will apply to their business model.
Awareness is the number one criteria"
Rob: How does open source apply to 3D printing and JOOM
closed source is proprietary-- it's secret, can't be accessed. Compare that to linux which was developed by thousands of developers worldwide.
3D printing is an open system. People are taking the original 3D software and adapting and improving it. People are developing new types of 3D printers every day.
Rob: Websites already offer free designs
The internet is facilitating all of this.
Rob: Anything having to do with journalism and 3D printing--
It's going to give a hell of a lot of stuff for journalists to write about.
It's going to be the key technology for manufacturing.
Rob: you talk about how this will re-establish manufacturing in the US, so we recover from the destruction of jobs caused by trade agreements.
Grandfather wants to get a chess set for his grandson and there are a few to choose from at a store. He can download design, or even put a scan of his grandson and put his face on the head of the king.
You no longer need china anymore to make chess sets. You can make your own.
Rob: will the raw material-- like the sintered metal-- be made in China?
Rob: Are people talking about the ethics of 3D printing.
I've suggested it to Prime Minister Harper (Canada)
I hear Obama is talking about it.
Rob: I wouldn't want to depend upon government.
Rob: How will this affect the average person in a given day as they wake up, go to their kitchen, as they go to work.
It will affect every aspect of their life. You'll be able to print out satin sheets, sex-toys, bio-printing will go even further-- women will be able to print out their own breasts-- no need for breast implants. People will custom design their own body parts.
Rob: There's a huge movement towards the internet of things-- where everything will be connected to the internet. How will this apply to 3D printing?
Eventually you'll have 3D printed electronics. You won't have to depend on Intel anymore. The internet of things will be enabled by 3D printing.
Rob: science fiction shows us food creators, where you tell a computer what you want and it is produce on a plate.
This is slow now but speed of 3D printing is being worked on. it's only a matter.
The most important thing s
those who make things happen, those who watch it happen and those who wonder what happened.
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