We hear a lot about limiting the rise in global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (3.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. The recently concluded G8 summit in Italy (July 2009) did for the first time agree to a target of no more than a 2 degrees Celsius increase by 2050, which would require the developed nations to cut their emissions by 80 percent, something that has yet to be agreed to.
So what does that mean in terms of what we might expect to see? Well, the authors of the book The Hot Topic laid out a simple list of things that would very likely be happening if temperatures rose to 2 degrees Celsius.
-Higher crop yields in some parts of the world but falling yields in the tropics, affecting some 10-30 million people.
-More floods, droughts, and heat waves with a related increase in diseases such as dengue fever.
-More people on the move and more potential for conflicts over water and other scarce resources.
-Heavier rainfalls even in areas of drought, increasing the risk of flooding.
-Stronger more intese hurricanes.
-Heat waves along with droughts and fires in mid-latitude continental areas.
What you need to remember is that barring a massive global effort, limiting the increase to the 2 degrees Celsius is the absolute best we can hope for. Think about that when the world gathers for the climate summit in December at Copenhagen. The ability or inability to set commonly agreed upon goals for emissions reductions will tell you everything you need to know about what kind of future our children will be dealing with in 30-40 years.
This essay first appeared in PlanetRestart.org.
