Diary: The nuclear balance of terror of Iran, Israel and Oil

So what would it take to get the oil price up, and get the US out of the area? Remember that ever since the US encircled Iran, it prevented both the Seyyeds from attacking anyone, and prevented the Arabs or Israelis to attack Iran. That crashed the oil price.

With news like this,

Israeli officials, shaken by the size and sophistication of Hamas' rocket arsenal, fear the country's nuclear center at Dimona may be targeted, the Times of London reports.

it really doesn't take much to connect the dots.

But let's reflect a bit. When GWB decided to jump into Iraq he knew that the US would be in charge of all matters in the area. That was different to the Democrat policy of letting the Israelis dictate matters. So this is what we are entering into. An era where the Israelis run the area, and the US pulls out most of its forces. That fits with what Obama wants. But this time there are no Iraqi threats to Israel. In those days the Seyyeds were involved big time with the Hamas and Hezbollah, but the world media would dare not mention it. Heck, the PLO helped Khomeini get into power, and brought that culture to secular Iran.

Thank goodness that finally the Seyyeds' influence in the area is under spotlight. Oh the western press will make a mountain out of a mole hill, and make the Seyyeds look terrible. The Seyyeds will love it, and will even think that they are going to get blessings more than other Islamic Arab states, that have done nothing against Israel. Ironically they will make the Arabs look pro-Israeli. No Arab state will ever push a button for a Mahdi, so they don't mind the Seyyed making all that noise, and winning the propaganda war.

But let's be practical. There needs to be a practical benefit for someone, for all this to happen. As usual we need to look at the price of Oil. It really did not go up, for all the Astrological reasons I have given, even with all the hoo haa the press made about Gaza and the Seyyeds. So ultimately it looks like any threat to the Israel nuclear facility will be the most scary proposition the Oil traders can be afraid of. That would balance out the threat of any attacks to Natanz or Bushehr.

This media theatre will be played out as and when they like. I can see a couple of scary comments coming from the Israeli about the imminent threat to their nukes, and how they might make pre-emptive strikes to Iran. They will all go long Oil futures just before that comment. That would wake up the US and they would try to play Mr Nice Guy to the Seyyeds. Or it would go the other way round, and the Seyyeds would tell the US to be nice to them, or else they would take out the nuke facilities in Israel, just before they went long Oil futures. Oh the media will have a field day with all these new permutations. The Oil price will fluctuate and everyone will make loads of money. A certain degree of inflation is better than deflation.

Once all these dots are connected in your average person's mind, then there will be a balance of terror, which will keep the peace, and maybe push the price of Oil higher to an unnecessary premium; enough to pay for all those ridiculous infrastructure projects, and military expenditures in the Southern Persian Gulf States.

But don't forget, the Seyyeds could be kicked out if the media wanted to, in just one week, with a massive bombardment of propaganda about how non violent general strikes can bring the Seyyeds to their knees. But until that day, Iran's Seyyeds will try to fill the ex-USSR's role as the biggest threat to the free world.