The internet has not yet reshaped politics in any fundamental way, and
its failure to do so constitutes a powerful argument for reform of the
television, newspaper, and radio media. In his recent book "Politics
Moves Online," George Washington University professor Michael
Cornfield claims that "the more activists a campaign ensnares in its
network-on-the-Net, the more money and volunteer hours it will collect,
and the more voters it will be able to reach through mass media and
physical contacts." This has come to sound like common sense, even
old news. But what sense this claim has is demonstrably false.
At no point during the recent Democratic primaries could you line up
the nine or 10 campaigns in order by size of Email list or web traffic and
see a better than chance correspondence to number of contributors, or
total contributions, or number of mentions in the media -- and almost
certainly not to number of volunteer hours worked - although I don't know
how to measure that and doubt Cornfield does either. It's not clear what
he means by physical contacts. If he means the size of crowds at candidate
events, I suspect he is mistaken. If he means volunteers meeting each
other through
MeetUps (or at least signing up and
RSVPing to say they will do so, which is what can actually be measured),
he's being tautological. If he means winning votes, he's clearly wrong,
even when looking at the one campaign he discusses, namely Howard Dean's.
The Dean campaign's internet presence was phenomenal and may have
brought many people into active politics in a lasting way. I hope so. The
grain of truth in the rule Cornfield expounds so carelessly is that the
Dean campaign had the largest Email list, the most web traffic, the most
money, the most volunteer hours, and the most media mentions. But the
media mentions preceded the internet growth that the Dean campaign handled
so masterfully. And when the media turned against the Dean campaign, the
internet organizing couldn't withstand it - the campaign was mortally
wounded in a matter of days.
The Kucinich campaign (for which I worked) had one of the largest
(possibly second largest) Email lists, often had the second highest web
traffic, for a while had the second largest MeetUps, had the highest
percentage of small donors, had the second highest number of donors, but
never even approached second place in total money or media mentions (not
even media stories about Net campaigning), and certainly not in polls or
votes.
Cornfield seems to believe that Net organizing somehow generates media
coverage. He said at a recent event at the National Press Club that the
media paid attention to the amount of money Dean raised on the Internet.
But the media covers money no matter how it's raised. And the media's
coverage of Dean's internet prowess was simply one type of story the media
could do on the candidate leading in the polls and money - a type of story
that, like all of the media's favorite types of campaign stories, avoids
policy positions.
I do not want to argue that the media created Dean's internet presence.
Several campaigns had good media coverage and never developed comparable
use of the Net. But it equally clear that the Internet presence did not
produce the media. This can be shown by the timing of events and by
comparison to other campaigns.
When Kucinich entered the race last Spring, it was not two weeks before
the New York Times' Adam Nagourney suggested he had no chance. To make
sure that prediction held true, from March to May, 2003, Nagourney
mentioned Kucinich 13 times and Dean 111 times. Yet during those months,
polls of registered Democrats showed the two candidates running so close
that their levels of support were within the margin of error.
The three major television networks mentioned Dean 30 times in
May and Kucinich not at all, although the April 23 Gallup poll had Dean at
5 percent and Kucinich at 3 percent. From then on, the coverage only got
more unbalanced. The polls, the money, and the tremendous Internet
activism followed. The media made Dean, and it unmade him again much more
quickly - "Yaaaahoooaugh!"
Cornfield, like other commentators, is telling us the media's story
about Dean, but the media always claims to be covering the campaigns it
creates and reporting on the natural demise of the campaigns it destroys.
Cornfield has not looked closely at the matter himself. He hasn't so much
as glanced at any of the campaigns other than Dean's for purpose of
comparison. Or if he has, he doesn't say so in his book and didn't say so
at the Press Club - where he did say that none of the campaigns' websites
used discussion forums (as opposed to Email or blogs) to gain ideas from
volunteers - although this was the source of most of the Kucinich
campaign's organizing ideas.
Cornfield confesses in his book: "My methods and approach have
limitations. Except for the survey research, I could not ascertain the
representativeness of the evidence and testimony I encountered and
collected. In 'hanging out' with members of a community, I was susceptible
to the biases attendant on 'going native'." You don't say.
"The Internet's time has, in fact, arrived in politics,"
Cornfield writes. No, it hasn't. I hope it does. What the Internet has
done thus far is demonstrate great power and then shown that power to be
as nothing beside the decisive strength of the media. Grasping that lesson
would be as important for our democracy as the Internet's direct
accomplishments may become.
http://www.davidswanson.org/columns/weakness.htm