Few people know the real reason why Al Gore simultaneously won
and lost his bid for U.S. President in 2000. It was the clash of
two mighty forces of American Presidential history that came
together to create the divergence between the Electoral College
and the popular vote for the first time since 1888: The Keys to
the White House vs. The Shrum Curse.
Bob Shrum is a brilliant, Democratic political consultant with
notable successes on Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races -- but
with a 100% losing record on Presidential elections. Shrum
consulted on every Democratic Presidential campaign from John
Lindsay to Al Gore. Jimmy Carter’s campaign would have ended
“The Curse,” but Shrum quit only days into his consultancy on
that campaign, keeping the losing streak alive.
Talk of the Shrum Curse is normally only discussed in hushed
tones in Washington, DC political circles. But a recent article in
The Washington Post let the Genie out of the bottle, freeing me to
discuss what really happened in the 2000 Presidential election.
Bob Shrum worked on Al Gore’s campaign in 2000 and his
unbroken track record virtually guaranteed that Gore would lose
the election -- except that The Keys to the White House also had a
100% track record of accuracy and they were predicting a Gore
victory in 2000.
The Keys to the White House is a system for predicting
Presidential elections, based on a mathematical model for
predicting earthquakes. History professor Allan J. Lichtman,
developed The Keys in collaboration with a world-renowned, Russian
geophysicist named Volodia Keilis-Borok.
The theory is that presidential elections are referenda on the
party in power. The Keys assess the performance, strength, and
unity of the party in power, in order to determine whether or not
that party will continue to hold the White House. The Keys are
based on the analysis of every American presidential election
since 1860.
First developed in 1981, The Keys looked backward in American
history, and retrospectively, they account accurately for the
results of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980.
Prospectively, The Keys predicted well ahead of time, the
popular-vote winners of every presidential election from 1984
through 2000. As a nationally based system, The Keys cannot
predict the results in individual states, and thus relate to the
popular vote not the Electoral College results.
The Keys are 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as
propositions that favor reelection of the incumbent party. When
five or fewer of these propositions are false, or turned against
the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in
office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
The Keys indicate incumbent party success or failure long before
the polls or any other forecasting models are of any value. (Refer
to “The Thirteen Keys to the White House.”)
In a published article in January of 2000, The Keys predicted
that Al Gore would be President of the United States. My husband,
Allan Lichtman and I looked at each other wide-eyed and agape when
we learned that Bob Shrum was consulting for Al Gore’s campaign.
We were both immediately aware of the historical dissonance
created by the clash of absolutes -- The Keys vs. The Curse.
Being the only people in America aware of the impending
collision of the two mighty forces, Allan and I speculated
privately about which force would predominate in this historical
tug of war and went to bed on November 2, 2000 thinking that The
Keys had prevailed. When we awoke on November 3rd, we discovered
we had not seen the last of the clash of these behemoth forces of
history.
The next couple of weeks saw the corrupt appointment of George
W. Bush as President of the United States by the U.S. Supreme
Court, going against the popular vote. And now we know -- both The
Keys and The Curse still have unbroken track records -- as Al Gore
won the popular vote, but George W. Bush occupies the White House.
And now you know why.
Sadly, The Keys and The Curse are aligned this year for another
Bush victory since Bob Shrum is working for John Kerry and The
Keys are in indicating that the incumbent Republicans are
currently well positioned to regain the White House in 2004,
despite the sour economy for much of the Bush term, and the war in
Iraq.
The Republican Party now has four keys turned against it for
2004, two short of the fatal six negative keys. Thus President
Bush could endure one more major setback between now and November
and still win reelection.
The following nine keys currently favor the incumbent
Republican Party (The verdict of the Keys in 2004 absolutely does
not indicate an endorsement of George W. Bush.):
- By gaining seats in the U.S. House elections of 2002,
Republicans locked in the party mandate key. (Key 1 - Party
Mandate - TRUE)
- The lack of any nomination challenge to President George
Bush gives the Republicans the incumbent party contest key.
(Key 2- Contest – TRUE)
- Likewise, Bush’s nomination secures the incumbency key.
(Key 3 - Incumbency – TRUE)
- The absence of any prospective third-party challenger with
prospects of winning 5 percent of the vote or more gives
Republicans the third-party key. (Key 4 - Third Party –
TRUE)
- The recovering economy secures the short-term economy key,
unless there is a return of the recession in 2004, but this is
looking increasingly unlikely. (Key 5 - Short-term economy –
TRUE)
- Despite anti-war protests, the absence of sustained, violent
upheavals like those of the 1960's, avoids loss of the social
unrest key. (Key 8 - Social unrest – TRUE)
- The lack of a significant scandal implicating the president
averts loss of the scandal key. (Key 9 - Scandal – TRUE)
- The president’s response to the September 11 attack
including the expulsion of the Taliban from Afghanistan and
the capture of Saddam Hussein secures the foreign/military
success key, unless the United States suffers major reversals
in both Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004. (Key 11-
Foreign/military success – TRUE)
- Kerry does not match the charisma of Franklin D. Roosevelt
or John F. Kennedy, keeping Republicans from losing the
challenger charisma/hero key. (Key 13 - Challenger charisma
– TRUE
The following four keys turn against the Republicans:
- The weak economy during the Bush term as compared to the
boom years of Clinton’s two terms costs the Republicans the
long-term economy key. (Key 6 - Long-term economy – FALSE)
- The modest domestic accomplishments of the Bush
administration topple the policy-change key. (Key 7 - Policy
change – FALSE)
- With 9-11, the first successful foreign attack on the
continental United States since the war of 1812 costs the
party in power the foreign/military failure key. (Key 10 -
Foreign/military failure – FALSE)
- George Bush is no Theodore Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan,
forfeiting the incumbent charisma/hero key. (Key 12 -
Incumbent charisma – FALSE)
According to Dr. Lichtman, while the possibility is extremely
remote, The Keys could still change between now and November. But
the history professor warns that late-changing keys have not
affected the outcome of a presidential election since September
and October of 1864 when General Sherman’s taking of Atlanta,
General Sheridan’s victories in Virginia, and the sinking of the
last Confederate ramming vessel turned the foreign/military
success key in favor of the Lincoln administration and averted
loss of the third party key.
It is surely too late for the economy to tumble into a
double-dip recession in time for Americans to feel the pain before
November 2, 2004. Never has the economy taken a major new turn
this close to a presidential election.
Conceivably one of several smoldering scandals – the outbreak
of prison abuse, deception about weapons of mass destruction, the
release of the name of the CIA agent married to administration
critic Joseph Wilson – could burst into flame and singe the
president. However, the Republicans who control both Houses of
Congress have kept the lid on investigations. It took many months
of diligent investigations and persistent questioning of
witnesses, for example, to crack the Watergate Scandal of the
Nixon administration. So the only possibility, however remote, is
that the Special Counsel investigating the CIA leak indicts top
administration officials before the election.
The shakiest key for the administration is the foreign/military
success key. It is possible that conditions in Afghanistan and
Iraq -- especially now that military deaths in Iraq have crossed
the 1,000 mark -- could become so dire as to cancel the
President’s earlier successes. Even this turn of events,
however, would still leave Bush one key short of defeat, according
to the professor.
Kerry could lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College
tally, which Bush accomplished in 2000 for the first time since
1888. Savor the irony of that for a moment. Although Kerry cannot
depend on such unlikely turns of fortune, he can help himself by
trying to scramble the historical odds.
“Nothing changes from one election to the next in America,
because the media, the candidates, the pollsters, and the
consultants are codependent in the false idea that elections are
exercises in manipulating voters, and in giving us negative
campaigns, bland and scripted lines,” said Allan Lichtman.
Dr. Lichtman says that Kerry has a chance to break this cycle
by firing the hucksters, tearing up their scripts, and speaking
forthrightly and concretely about what Americans should be
accomplishing during the next four years. Al Gore finally decided
to take this route, albeit too late.
Kerry should lead a debate on critical neglected issues. He
could, for example, respond to the worldwide scientific consensus
on the perils of global warming by exploring how we can make a
complete shift away from fossil fuels toward clean, renewable
energy. He could even explain how fossil fuel dependence warps our
foreign policies, hurts our national security, and lead to the war
in Iraq. Imagine such a discussion in a presidential campaign.
“Why not break precedent and set up a shadow government, with
a suggested CIA Director, and Secretaries of State, Defense,
Treasury, and Interior. Tell us how this shadow administration
would government differently from the Bush administration. Submit
an alternative budget and drafts of international agreements, and
major legislation; let the shadow officials campaign for Kerry and
his policies,” said Dr. Lichtman.
Professor Lichtman says that John Kerry has a choice between
following the usual meaningless routine in the hope that setbacks
to the administration and the country will elect him in November
or take a chance on running a new kind of daring, innovative, and
programmatic campaign. With the right choice, Kerry can achieve an
historical breakthrough that would establish the basis for a
principled choice of our national leader and a grassroots
mobilization on issues that matter to America’s future.
Karyn Strickler is a campaign expert, activist, and writer
living outside Washington, DC. You can reach her at fiftyplusone@earthlink.net
.
THE 13 KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE
The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the
incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the
incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging
party wins.
KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the
incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of
Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the
incumbent-party nomination.
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the
sitting president.
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or
independent campaign.
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession
during the election campaign.
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth
during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous
two terms.
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects
major changes in national policy.
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest
during the term.
KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by
major scandal.
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration
suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration
achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is
charismatic, or a national hero.
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate
is not charismatic, or a national hero.
Allan J. Lichtman, The
Keys to the White House (Lexington Books: Lanham, MD)
Copyright 2004 Karyn Strickler
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