While many seek to appoint an angry finger of blame at the Newtown Connecticut shooting, I offer a quite different perspective on this tragic event. We have come to understand that there are many unpredictable and unlikely events which we label, "Black Swan," occurrences. That is what this, and many other mass shootings turn out to be.

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ARE MASS SHOOTINGS SIMPLY BLACK SWAN EVENTS?

Yes, we all agree that the shooting in Connecticut was a terrible tragedy. For more than 48 hours, little else was on the news. How awful it was that such young, innocent children were brutally killed along with their courageous and teachers. President Obama and others have called for action which will eliminate mass shootings from our lives. While there is much that can be done to reduce the frequency of such events, it is my contention that they are still going to happen.

An aroused public is likely to demand new legislation to limit the lethality of rifles, shotguns, and handguns. Other legislation will be designed to eliminate the opportunity for dangerous people to buy weapons at gun shows without the necessity for being qualified by background checks.

At the same time, every day the news brings to us some tragic event where people are killed or seriously injured or property is destroyed. Our weather forecasters told us that Hurricane Sandy was coming. No doubt the action of the governors of New York and the governor of New Jersey and the mayors of affected cities saved many lives. But there was absolutely nothing they could do to stop the property damage. While there has not been a domestic airline crash in several years, we inevitably read both crashes taking place in other countries. (Just recently a well-known Hispanic singer was killed when her plane crashed in Mexico).

Almost weekly we read of earthquakes in one or another part of the world. Hundreds often die when these events occur. And while individuals can prepare to survive after such events, there is absolutely nothing they can do to stop them from happening.

Here comes the That Black Swan, or S**t Happens!

The   black swan theory or   theory of black swan events   is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major effect, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of   hindsight .

Wikipedia tells us:

"What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations , because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact' . Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable ."

Certainly, when the children who were killed went off to school that day, neither they, their teachers, their parents, nor anyone in their community expected the events that happened only shortly after school started. No one would dispute the extreme impact that the event has had not only on the parents of the children and the residents of the town, but on an entire nation. Finally, the event fits very precisely with the black swan classification, in that it is is explained by the lack of appropriate legislation to prevent criminals and the disturbed from obtaining weapons.

In recent days there have been a number of explanations for the killer's motive in first killing his mother and then going on the rampage which so tragically result in the deaths of 28 at the Sandy Hook Elementary School.

Even though it has been described in detail, no one has chosen to identify the one person whose human error ultimately enabled the severely disturbed killer to achieve his goal. The Incomprehensible negligence of the perpetrator's mother, knowing of the perpetrator's disability while enabling access to firearms, was the proximate cause of the tragedy which followed. Many in Newtown are are beginning to point the finger of blame at her, seldom naming her as one of the victims.

There are ultimately three categories of those who commit firearm crimes.

1. Children, from toddlers through adolescents;

2. Adults with mental or emotional illnesses;

3. Criminals.

Making the Random, Predictable?

As I indicated earlier, preparations can certainly serve to reduce the frequency of black swan events, but it cannot stop them from happening altogether.

There is already substantial legislation at the state level which is designed to lessen the lethality and access to firearms.. This Wikipedia page provides a state-by-state analysis of applicable handgun and long gun laws. Connecticut, in fact has strong legislation designed to reduce the presence of assault weapons as well as ensuring that only those who are neither criminals nor mentally disturbed can purchase firearms. Nonetheless, with all that was in place, this shooting occurred.

California, Connecticut and New York are among the states with the strongest limitations on assault weapon. The California Penal Code, Section 12276.1 (a) essentially follows the Federal Law which expired in 2004 in which there are now calls for reinstating it. In one way or another many states have replicated it in their definition of what constitutes an, "Assault Weapon." For a fuller understanding of the California law, this PDF's provides a complete analysis of the kinds of weapons which are completely illegal, having him one way or another violated the ban on assault weapons As you will note, the defining characteristic of a semi-automatic is, that it is equipped with the magazine which discharges a shell with each pull of the trigger. The vast majority of rifles sold to domestic consumers can be classified as semi-automatic. The Bushmaster 223 caliber rifle certainly fit that category. So too did the other handguns carried by Lanza.

It is important to understand that, for all practical purposes, every handgun in the United States (with the exception of historic weapons) can be classified as being semi-automatic. In confined spaces, the handgun is every bit as lethal a weapon as is the rifle or shotgun. Therefore, in and of itself, restricting purchase of semi-automatic long guns is likely to have little or no effect on the casualty rate when shooting incidents occur.

In the case of both children and those with mental or emotional illness, it is essential that we find ways of keeping weapons from them. It is important to note that none of the proposals which have been made by others or which I am making here would not have had the remotest effective in preventing this shooting.

Helping, But, by No Means Completely Ending

The proposal offered below offer possibilities for mitigating, but, by no means completely ending shootings at schools or other places where many people assemble.

1. Requiring Biometric Trigger Locks Require that all handguns and long guns be manufactured such that a biometric trigger lock comes ready to use by the purchaser. Even if taken whether accidentally or purposefully by those not permitted to use the weapon, they are prevented using it. When properly designed and installed, these locks cannot be circumvented. Just as there are safety specifications required of manufacturers, whoever currently has a responsibility for safety inspection and quality control would be tasked with the responsibility for verifying that all manufactured weapons which can be sold in the United States have this trigger guard installed.

Private owners having purchased weapons prior to this legislation taking affect would need to be given a specific length of time by which a licensed gunsmith or other qualified individual in could install new trigger guards. This would of course require a long period of time, since given the number of weapons in circulation would take a long time to make these conversions. For those failing to make these changes have any fines or disqualification from gun ownership should be included to eliminate failure to install this measure.

2. Gun safes or long gun cabinets: Require that prior to purchase or transfer of both handguns and long guns that safe storage be a part of the requirements to make  purchases. Handguns must be stored in Gun Safes when kept within residences. When present in places of business, or public dormitories (as at colleges and universities, or offices), depending on the regulations of the school or place of business. In general if weapons are allowed that entity must provide its own regulations for safekeeping of those weapons. Long guns when stored at the residence of their owners would be required to be stored in break proof cabinets. Prior to the purchase of weapons a bill of sale showing that such cabinets had been acquired or that a safe was purchased, would be necessary for the purchase of any firearm.

3. Fixing accountability for background checks: In the aftermath of the April 16, 2007 massacre at Virginia Tech, the deadliest shooting spree in U.S. History, it was discovered that Cho Seung-Hui had been determined to be mentally ill and a danger to himself and others. In spite of that court ruling and an order to undergo a psychological evaluation, Cho was able to purchase the handguns he used to shoot 32 people and himself from a licensed gun dealer. Given this information as well as the rest of the article in which it appears, it should be evident that legislation at the federal level is essential to ensure that all applicants are thoroughly and carefully vetted, eliminating any who may be disqualified by mental disturbance, drug addiction, alcoholism, or criminal record.

4. Requiring Mental Health Workers Flag Concerns regarding Patients or Student Contacts. Yet almost every one of the major mass shootings which have occurred in recent years, the perpetrator has had some contact with a mental health worker. This may have been in contact with a medical professional, school guidance counselors, social workers, or others having a professional relationship with that individual. When these professionals have concerns about an individual it is essential that they not only have data entry access to those databases which are used in assessing the application of prospective firearms purchasers, but that these professionals be required to enter appropriate warnings to prevent potential killers from being able to purchase weapons.

5. Elimination of the Production of "Assault" Weapons and High-Capacity Magazines except for Sales to Law Enforcement and the Military. Calls for the Elimination of, "Assault," weapons may mean different things to different people. When we talk about an assault weapon some people think of it as a fully automatic weapon that fires all his ammunition continuously so long as the trigger is pulled. In essence the most familiar example that would be the MP-5, which is a machine pistol so often displayed in movies depicting Special Forces personnel in action. The only organizations which can justify the use of fully automatic weapons are just that -- United States Military. There is no conceivably justifiable reason for placing automatic weapons in the hands of individual citizens.

In the case of legislation limiting the production or sale of large capacity magazines, the large numbers of them currently in circulation, guns will make elimination of them very difficult for many years to come.

An alternative Proposal

It is a near certainty extreme resistance to some or all the proposals above., This will be the case even where the necessity for protective legislation is profoundly evident. All of them require the expenditure of additional costs which will ultimately be borne by the firearms purchaser.

In 2007 I wrote an article for Op Ed News, entitled, Guns Don't Kill, Bullets Do. The recommendations which I made then still remain in effect, unchanged. If implemented, these recommendations certainly would have absolutely no effect on the ability of the individual to use his firearms exactly in the same ways as he has currently does. It is true that gun dealers are likely to object since a portion of revenue will go somewhere else. But from the perspective of the consumer, this proposal is certainly revenue neutral. Instead, some of the burden of costs currently carried by law enforcement would be reduced.

This said, implementation of this proposal could replace or supplement all the proposals listed above. The legislation itself would be implemented at the state level, with agencies from the federal government providing consultation and assistance in drafting the legislative language. One of the ways that New Hampshire avoids the need for state income tax is through the state supervision and administration of alcohol sales. Thus, states should have considerable motivation to see the kind of revenue enhancement that the sale of ammunition would bring in reducing the costs of law enforcement.

And, the Black Swan Will Continue to Fly

It will be important that as a public we come to understand that no matter what we do, there will always be disturbed individuals who will gain access to lethal weapons; there will always be children who acquire firearms because some adults are careless. When that happens, there's a good chance that with no intention at all, someone will be injured or killed. When that happens, remember that the unlikely or even the impossible does indeed, sometimes happen.

Authors Bio:

An OpEdNews editor, Sherwin Steffin is a retired educator, and research analyst. His working career ranged from classroom teacher, university administrator, founder and CEO of two software companies, independent consultant, ending as a research statistician for a large Internet Service Provider.

Although he has some mobility problems, his life continues to be productive and enjoyable.s.

his most recent project is the writing of an online book focused on reforming the curriculum offered to American high school students. Titled, "Getting the Horse to Drink," it is expected to be available before the end of the year.