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The Link Between Global Warming and Mega-Quakes - Reprise

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Today marks the first anniversary of the 5.8 earthquake that struck the DC area, centered in Mineral, VA, about 130km southwest. It caused about $100 million in damages in DC, mostly to the Washington Monument and the National Cathedral. According to historians, it is the largest quake anyone has felt in this area in recorded history. It also occurred during the 60-day window around the equinoxes.

We have established the link between global warming and devastating earthquakes that have ravaged the earth over the past eight years.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) publishes an online chart of mega-quakes (defined as at or above 8.5 on the Richter Scale) for the last century or so that reveals 17 such quakes, six within the last eight years. What you may not have noticed is that five of these six have occurred within 30 days of the equinoxes. At the same time, the maximum extent of arctic or antarctic ice coincided with these occurrences at a time when the Northwest Passage was opened for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years due to accelerated melting of the Arctic Ocean due to global warming.

Now there were seven mega-quakes in the period 1950 through 1964 that did not appear to have a high correlation with this pattern (only two within 30 days of the equinoxes), but global warming was not a significant factor in the melting of the Arctic Ocean until after 2000.

The physical mechanism for the linkage between these two very unlikely events is the mass differential at the poles. It is the only significant time-varying force that is of a magnitude -- trillions of metric tons -- capable of destabilizing the tectonic plates. The average annual melt vs. the average annual ice buildup is about 3m at the opposing poles, or over 15 trillion tons of net force. This is at least 3 times what it was before the impacts of recent global warming. I believe that this imbalance is enough to cause a serious deflection in the plates. As an example, this is like making Mount Everest, the world's largest mountain, alternatively appear and disappear every year at the poles.

The International Arctic Research Council and JAXA, the Japanese Space Agency, keeps track of the arctic ocean ice extent and publishes a daily update online. This year appears to be on course for setting the record for the greatest meltdown in history. Now, if we combine the two sets of data, here is an overlay of the six mega-quakes that have occurred since 2004. The only one out of band, the 2004 quake that took nearly a quarter-million lives, occurred when the arctic sea ice extent was over 85% of maximum.



Overlay of Mega-quakes and Arctic Ice Melt Data by Dr. Paul A. Curto


I wish that you might communicate this information with your friends, congressmen, and newspapers for discussion. If I am right, there is a very high probability, at least 90% with a 95% confidence level, that a mega-quake will occur in that 60 day band near the two equinoxes at least once each year, accelerating as the melting and refreezing continues to worsen with global warming. One of these bands started recently, on August 21, 2012.

The mass of the ice in the Arctic Ocean is totally compensated hydraulically throughout the earth's oceans, which means that the melted ice from the Arctic raises the ocean level while the sun is out at the North Pole. However, the ice melt and refreezing in Antarctica is not compensated except by pressure on the tectonic plates. The chart for Antarctica's ice is the mirror image of the Arctic ice extent six months out of phase.

This correlation means that global warming is having an immediate impact on the life, safety, and security of the human race right now, today, not 10,000 years from now, with deadly consequences thousands of times greater than 9/11. Global warming is now directly linked to the largest earthquakes ever recorded in history.

I published an earlier version of this graph at OEN a year ago after the 5.8 quake that struck Delmarva - the largest ever recorded near DC in history. The mega-quake that struck Fukushima (Honshu, Japan) last year on 3/11 was 50,000 times as powerful.

Here is the quake data from USGS... http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php

Here is the daily sea ice data from IARC/JAXA... http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent_prev.htm

One problem is that the analyst must have the math and the scientific knowledge across disciplines, unlike climate deniers who clearly do not. There is billions of dollars' worth of data being collected about the earth, and this correlation related to mega-quakes is only now being brought to light. Hansen's report this month clears up the fallacy that one needs centuries' worth of data to make the connection between the weather and climate change. The data here is highly correlated, not random, and hardly ambiguous.

Correspondence with the world's top seismic analysts has been ambiguous, who all say they need more data. They have not examined the global warming data and even tried to use the changing boundary conditions due to melting and refreezing ice. It doesn't have a place in their models! This paradox is very simple to understand. Most, if not all of these experts work for the fossil fuel industry.

Since billions of lives are at stake and the evidence is overwhelming that global warming is occurring at rates never before seen by the human race, this is not comedy. It is murder, on a global scale, that is happening at the same time. As a scientist who actually understands the mechanics of both fields, a very rare commodity indeed, I am obligated to reveal the evidence for everyone to see. Not one single geologist has refuted these findings. Anywhere. They cannot confirm the linkage without more data, but the average length of time between mega-quakes for the first 100 years had been one per decade, and now nearly once per year for the last eight years. One stated that the seven mega-quakes of the mid-20th century were an aberration, but did not explain it. He wanted to wait 10,000 years to confirm the data. The point is that some scientists spend their lives placing angels on the head of a pin. Responsible ones find the WHY and HOW and prove it scientifically. Speculation is the propaganda we see in the elections from the politicians. Anyone can check this data independently, run the numbers, and come to the same conclusions rationally. I ask anyone to find a valid counterexample and show its relevance.

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It's only been a year since I began this investiga... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 10:58:14 AM
Here is a link to the full resolution data:http://... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 11:51:44 AM
There was a server error at Comcast. The correct l... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 1:29:17 PM
Paul, living on Vancouver Island this is a tr... by Jim Baird on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 12:40:42 PM
The solutions we have worked to achieve may find g... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 1:07:01 PM
  There are actually some native tribes ... by Theresa Paulfranz on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 12:48:20 PM
Your comment is indeed true, in that so many choos... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 1:11:00 PM
    After much discussion and revie... by Robert Porreca on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 2:18:14 PM
Your comment makes unwarranted assertions about th... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 3:12:30 PM
Good points Robert. I am highly skeptical. First o... by John Moffett on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 7:56:28 AM
The tectonic plates float on magma, as you say, an... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 3:09:18 PM
John, The last time I looked the USGS was ave... by Robert Porreca on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 3:49:31 PM
Your assertion is incorrect.USGS has only measured... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 5:49:08 PM
That's what the USGS (the experts) says Paul-avera... by Robert Porreca on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 3:55:51 PM
There were 6 mega-quakes since 1973, over 8.4, all... by Paul from Potomac on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 6:22:17 PM
Ice melt may indeed have an influence on crustal m... by Paul Repstock on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 2:37:45 PM
Paul, I like your order of magnitude analysis, and... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 3:20:02 PM
The author has demonstrated no correlation between... by Robert Porreca on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 3:46:53 PM
Robert, I studied the geological literature and th... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 5:32:31 PM
In the interest of fairness, let me say my objecti... by Robert Porreca on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 4:04:46 PM
I'll be glad to answer that charge, Robert. W... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 5:40:38 PM
I had hoped to hear from responsible scientists an... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 5:53:10 PM
The geologists don't reply to postings on the inte... by Robert Porreca on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 3:59:19 PM
The author makes a simple mistake: The seasonal me... by Thomas Anonymous on Sunday, Aug 26, 2012 at 12:29:40 AM
Thomas, I'm glad to have the opportunity to hear y... by Paul from Potomac on Sunday, Aug 26, 2012 at 1:47:41 PM
During the ice ages the sea level was much lower N... by Thomas Anonymous on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 5:15:40 AM
Sorry for the bait on Archimedes. I was not certai... by Paul from Potomac on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 12:47:57 PM
Thanks, yes it seems that the stats are a fluke on... by Thomas Anonymous on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 1:33:36 PM
Arguing with Paul is like banging your head on met... by Robert Porreca on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 4:06:44 PM