(Article changed on November 6, 2012 at 17:29)
If the Democrats keep control of the Senate and
Romney wins today, the Democrats will likely retake the House in 2014, and 2016
will likely be a big year for Democrats running for President, Senator, or
Representative.
Why do I say this?
Economic policy is currently bad and will not
change, which means it will get relatively worse over time if other countries
continue to adopt pro-growth policies. How do I know this? A
Democrat-controlled Senate will filibuster all legislation proposed by Romney.
This is not new. Democrats did it to Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II, and
Republicans did it to Clinton and Obama. This is known as gridlock. Gridlock
was good under Clinton because economic policy, at the time, was pretty good
relative to that in other countries.
So, in the next mid-term election, I suspect the
economy will be limping along. Democrats will likely benefit from a bad 2014
economy by winning control of both houses because the President is blamed for
economic malaise. This was the case in 2008. Although Democrats controlled the
House and Senate in 2007 and 2008, many voters actually thought both Houses of
Congress were controlled by Republicans because Bush was president. This means
Romney will have no chance of getting anything through Congress between 2014
and a reelection bid in 2016.
So, if Romney wins tonight, there is NO reason
to riot in the streets. Democrats will thwart everything he'll propose even
though Romney has touted his ability to work across the aisle. The US Senate is not the
Massachusetts legislature. The federal government can print money;
Massachusetts cannot. Thus, there is no incentive for Senate Democrats to work
with Romney. Thus, I foresee no end to trillion-dollar budget deficits,
but unemployment will subside as people stop looking for work.
Although I have no horse in this race (I voted
for Gary Johnson), I think Mr. Romney is a nice guy--too nice for politics. I
do not see him using the bully pulpit to demonize Senate Democrats into
supporting his policy proposals. Instead, I see the Democrats being able to use
the media to pull him to their side. The Romney presidency will be as if a
Democrat were in office, which will result in him being a one-term president.
