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Predicting the Presidential Election: The Real "Swing States' - Jack Rasmus

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With less than a week to go to the November national elections, popular polls show Obama and Romney are either in a dead heat tie or Romney slightly ahead in the popular vote. What counts, of course, is not the popular vote but the archaic US system of electoral college votes--a legacy of one of the most undemocratic procedures borne from the US Constitution.

Much focus by the press in recent days has been on the so-called "swing states' which will decide the election outcome. Apart from the swing states with their potential electoral votes, our this writer's estimate is that Romney has 204 electoral votes firmly in hand while Obama has 224. Romney has 204 electoral votes firmly in hand while Obama has 224. Romney's total includes states like Arizona (10) and Montana (3) that some pollsters erroneously indicate as swing but will go, as they always have, to the Republican candidate.
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Born in the USA, living in Canada since 1968, I'm a Vietnam war resister, a revolutionary democratic socialist partisan of the Fourth International reproclaimed in 1993, a member of Canada's New Democratic Party, on the executive committee of (more...)
 

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