I’ve been exchanging comments with OEN’s John Little in following his posting the article, Strawman - Guns in Self-defense.  It’s been lively and challenging, but after putting in significant work on my latest comment, I decided it was a significant enough effort to post it as a diary entry rather than bury it in the comments section of John’s article.  Not to slight John, the link to his article is right there above.  He posted first and it's his thread.  However, he wants to limit discussion and I would prefer to broaden it.

I would understand perfectly if John would prefer not to post here, in which case, I would be glad to continue posting comments on his article's comment section, and carry on a separate, broader exchange with anyone interested in posting here. 

Editors: if my posting this way violates any OEN rules, do your duty.  No willful violation of the rules intended on my part.

Color Coding:

Green: copied in a large blocks from www.guncite.com.  Much of the other information not copied in large blocks is also from “guncite”.

Purple: copied in a large block from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29632127/, and paraphrased from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29630925/.

Blue: John

Regarding the snarky start below, I swear, he hit me first!  Oh well, backtrack if you want and judge for yourself.  It’s not important.

“I will ask that you keep your comparisons to the topic at hand.”  OK, and thank you for dropping 90% of the irrelevant mocking, sarcasm, and personal sniping.  In return, I ask for you to drop the remaining 10% as well.

“I assume you missed this premise from the beginning …”  I missed nothing.  Don’t assume I missed something because I don’t agree.  That’s intellectually arrogant.  I don’t agree that Americans see being forced to pull out a gun to defend themselves as often as they do as the sign of a great civilization.  Americans KNOW they have a serious crime problem.  If they are proud of anything, they are proud that they are not stripped by Government of the right to self defense. 

If the modern gun culture is to blame for the gun related crime that is our topic, then the modern gun culture consists overwhelmingly of our American criminal element, not the preponderance of gun owners.  Non-criminal gun owners see the 2^nd Amendment as a unique political achievement more than anything else.  Yeah, I get it that many Europeans don’t see it the same way.  Please stop with the absurd assertion that anecdotal evidence of European opinion based on sensational news, derived from your recollections of the time you lived in Europe, comprises a valid argument.

This 2.5 million times per year is used as a positive statistic for the pro gun lobby in order to avoid being stripped of the right to self defense by the gun control lobby, the latter who promoted the false notion that the usage of guns for self defense was too low to favor private ownership of guns.  Now that the gun usage for self defense has proven to be much higher than originally thought, the gun control lobby says it’s too high to favor private ownership.  What is that if not talking out of both sides of the mouth at the same time???

“Lost is the notion that 2.5 million times per year is a huge number in any country. I believe I amply demonstrated the absurdity of such a stat.”  How did you do that?  With nine paragraphs of absurd assumptions about what you believe gun owners are thinking?  And, I’m sorry if you missed the part where I agreed that we have a serious, OK terrible, crime problem in the U.S.  Yes, we do.

You also need to recognize that when you wrote, “this stat alone is very frightening”, you are speaking of your own fear, not mine, not all gun owners, not even all non-gun owners, and certainly not all Americans.  You can highlight it all you want, and I will remain more frightened of: heart disease, because it runs in my family, cancer, getting into my car to drive to work, losing my job, and occasionally having the bad dream now and then that one of my children will commit suicide, because my son is one year out of college, without a full-time job, he tends not to express his feelings well, and sometimes gets very quiet for days; and, my perfectionist daughter is away at a high pressure elite university.  All of these worry me far more than guns.  Try not to forget my “off-topic” post about post 9/11 airline travel as well.  The problem with trying to sell fear by restricting discussion to one “stat alone” is that the reality is, that no stat is alone.

Your article stated specifically that the pro gun lobby cites defensive usage of guns and promotes the myth that the gun control lobby says guns are only used in gun violence, never in self defense.  You can make the argument that the pro gun lobby exaggerates the gun control lobby’s position, but you cannot make the argument that guns are not used in self defense, and you cannot refute the argument that the gun control lobby plays up gun violence and downplays the self defense angle, or at least they did in the past.  So, where did you knock the straw man down?

You asserted that, “The straw man here states that the percentage of guns being used in crimes is a very small fraction of the overall usage of guns in any given year. By far most often guns are brandished by people who use them for self-defense.”  In your last comment, you wrote, "I have tried to wrap every comment around that issue and compare that issue with other countries in order to have a proportional analysis and comparative statistics for review purposes."  Please point out any statistics in your article giving the “percentage of guns being used in crimes”, the “overall usage of guns in any given year”, or the “fraction of the overall usage of guns in any given year.”  You didn’t.  There are no comparative statistics.  Instead, you asserted that, “By far most often guns are brandished by people who use them for self-defense.”  Not only does this last statement have no backup, what does it mean?  By far compared with what?  Where are the “proportional analysis and comparative statistics”?

Your one big statistic (2.5 million defensive gun uses per year) is simply followed by nine paragraphs of absurd fiction.  What does that prove?  Nothing.  The nine paragraphs lead up to the supposed coup de grace, “These guns are put to use in some form of self-defense 2.5 million times every year. Over 35,000 people die every year from gun-related deaths. Multiple murder incidents happen with a frequency that staggers the senses.”  What is the meaning of juxtaposing these three statements?  Are you implying that defensive gun use is the cause of 35,000 gun related deaths and scores of multiple murder incidents?  And, how do they knock the supposed “straw man” argument down?

Let’s take them one by one.

“2.5 Million Defensive Gun Uses (per year)”

The 2.5 million defensive gun uses (DGUs) per year statistic comes from the widely publicized 1994 Florida State University, Kleck/Gertz, telephone survey.  Three years later, the 1997 U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms (NSPOF), using methodology similar to Kleck/Gertz, arrived at 1.5 million DGUs per year. 

The DOJ NSPOF survey includes an interesting analysis suggesting that both the Kleck/Gertz statistic and NSPOF statistic itself over-estimate the number of defensive gun uses, for a variety of reasons including: the nature of the questions asked, the psychology of the respondent, and well-known effect of false positives in statistics pertaining to rare events.  Indeed, prior to the Kleck/Gertz survey, thirteen other surveys indicated a range of between 800,000 to 2.5 million DGU's annually.  One other study, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) in 1993, actually estimated 108,000 DGU's annually!  So, the 2.5 million DGUs per year is clearly at the high end of the range of estimates.

With that kind of variation in the published statistics, is it any wonder I asked what was the question used by the survey?  The key question asked by the researchers of the NSPOF (very similar to Kleck/Gertz) was, “Within the past 12 months, have you yourself used a gun, even if it was not fired, to protect yourself or someone else, or for the protection of property at home, work, or elsewhere?”  Do you notice the flaw in the question?

So, is it 2.5 million, 1.5 million, or 108,000???  It’s not surprising that the gun lobby would pick the highest number because it gives credibility to the notion that private gun owners actually protect themselves and others, and deter crime.  Why did you pick it?  You didn’t compare it to any other statistic.  You simply asserted, “By far most often guns are brandished by people who use them for self-defense.”  Again, “most often” compared with what?  What is your point?  What is wrong with people defending themselves from crime?

“35,000 people die every year from gun-related deaths”

This statistic includes: accidents (≈600), homicides (≈14,800), and suicides (≈19,600).  Any reasonable discussion of gun control includes this breakdown and the fact that the overall suicide rate is essentially uncorrelated with firearm availability.  That is, the statistics support the view that where guns are less common, there is complete substitution of other methods of suicide, and that, while gun levels influence the choice of suicide method, they have no effect on the number of people who die in suicides.  So, you can chop that number down to 15,400, of which 14,800 are homicides. 

… reduces to 14,800 gun-related homicides

Of these 14,800 and contrary to the image portrayed in your brief article, most murders are not committed by previously law-abiding citizens going berserk, or because a gun was handy during a moment of uncontrollable rage.  Ordinary people do not, in fact, decide suddenly to "blow-away" their spouse or sibling at the dinner table.  The overwhelming majority of murders are committed by people with previous criminal records or a history of violent behavior.  Even a significant percentage of homicide victims themselves have criminal records.  Domestic homicides as well are typically preceded by a long history of domestic violence.  Substantial fractions of homicides are committed by people arrested and released pending trial and by people released from prison.  The "crime of passion" homicide is much more the exception rather than the rule.

Excerpted from, Kates, Don B., et. al, Guns and Public Health: Epidemic of Violence or Pandemic of Propaganda? Originally published as 61 Tenn. L. Rev. 513-596 (1994): "Looking only to official criminal records, data over the past thirty years consistently show that the mythology of murderers as ordinary citizens does not hold true. Studies have found that approximately 75% of murderers have adult criminal records, and that murderers average a prior adult criminal career of six years, including four major adult felony arrests. These studies also found that when the murder occurred "[a]bout 11% of murder arrestees [were] actually on pre-trial release"--that is, they were awaiting trial for another offense … The fact that only 75% of murderers have adult crime records should not be misunderstood as implying that the remaining 25% of murderers are non-criminals. The reason over half of those 25% of murderers don't have adult records is that they are juveniles. Thus, by definition they cannot have an adult criminal record."

In 2001, the 68 largest cities accounted for 42% of reported homicides which house only 18% of the U.S. population. (Homicide figures obtained from 2001 FBI Uniform Crime Report, p. 201.).  Recall my comment about the historical change in U.S. demographics from small towns to large cities.

Although still unacceptably high, the U.S. homicide rate reached a 30 year low of 5.6 per 100,000 in 2001.  Most of our problem is criminals and repeat offenders misusing guns.  We already have laws prohibiting felons from possessing firearms. There is a 10 year penalty for a felon found in possession of a firearm, yet how often is this law enforced?  Like I basically said, we remain a violent society, with suicide and murder problems I might add.   

“Multiple murder incidents happen with a frequency that staggers the senses (in America, implied)”

You also asserted in your comment, “The frequency (the U.S. frequency), when compared to the rest of the world, is eye-opening to say the least.”  You didn’t actually do any comparing.  Asserting what the conclusion of a comparison would be without actually comparing is not comparing.

March 11, 2009: Tim Kretschmer, 17, killed nine students and three teachers at a high school in Winnenden, Germany.  Passed a note to a teacher three weeks before the shootings expressing mental/emotional distress.

Sept. 23, 2008: Matti Saari, 22, killed nine fellow students and a teacher before committing suicide at a vocational school in Kauhajoki, Finland.

Feb. 14, 2008: Former student Steven Kazmierczak, 27, opens fire in a lecture hall at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, Illinois, US, fatally shooting five students and wounding 18 others before committing suicide.

Nov. 7, 2007: Pekka-Eric Auvinen, 18, shoots and kills eight people and commits suicide at a high school in Tuusula, Finland.

April 16, 2007: Cho Seung-Hui, 23, fatally shoots 32 people in a dorm and a classroom at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, then commits suicide himself in the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history.

Nov. 20, 2006: Sebastian Bosse, 18, goes on a rampage at his former high school in Emsdetten, Germany, near the Dutch border, shooting and injuring four students and the school janitor. Police commandos later found Bosse dead.

April 26, 2002: Robert Steinhaeuser, 19, previously expelled from a school in Erfurt, Germany, kills 13 teachers, two former classmates and a policeman, before committing suicide.

April 20, 1999: Students Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold open fire at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado, US, killing 12 classmates and a teacher and wounding 26 others before committing suicide in the school's library.

March 13, 1996: Thomas Hamilton, 43, killed 16 kindergarten children and their teacher in Dunblane, Scotland, and then committed himself.

“Practically unheard of anywhere else”?  Notice any pattern other than the fact that school-shootings are not unique to the U.S.?  [Shooter Suicide]  We already have laws prohibiting juveniles from possessing firearms.  Where are the laws prohibiting the mentally ill from possessing firearms or restricting access to them?  At least some healthy discussion has started in the United States revolving around the idea of early identification and intervention in cases of depressed and suicidal students.  I might still have a cousin (who committed suicide with her father’s gun) if there were more understanding and less stigma associated with depression and mental illness in the U.S. 

Nevertheless, the thoughts of suicidal teenagers who turn violent do not represent the states of mind of others, specifically legal gun owners or American culture in general.  If we have more mass-shootings than other countries, overall, could our 300 million population also have something to do with it?  What would the relative frequency be, expressed per capita?  You didn’t say.

So, you can’t reduce the suicide rate by restricting access to guns, because people will substitute other methods.  You can’t reduce the homicide rate much either by restricting access to guns of responsible gun owners.  Mostly, that would make it slightly less difficult for criminals to steal a gun or to obtain one illegally by other means.  You cannot effectively restrict access of mentally ill teenagers to guns without altering certain cherished ideals concerning commitment of the mentally ill or emotionally disturbed to treatment without their consent.  And, you cannot restrict access to guns of people with a history of domestic violence unless they have committed a felony without violating their civil right to own a gun, despite documentation of the abuse, because battered women typically refuse to charge their husbands with assault or rape.  Aside from addressing all social and economic issues that make crime a problem in the U.S., what can be done?

The low hanging fruit would appear to be the need to start treating domestic or spousal abuse no differently than child abuse.  That is, no charges need be filed.  Law enforcement agencies could file charges, immediately impound and confiscate guns pending judicial review, and restrict access to guns no differently than the way felons are prohibited from owning or possessing guns depending on the court’s decision.

I know you will want to rebut this, but I’ll toss this in the ring for the purpose of discussion, too:

Liberalized Concealed Carry Laws

In 1987, when Florida enacted such legislation, critics warned that the "Sunshine State" would become the "Gunshine State." Contrary to their predictions, homicide rates dropped faster than the national average. Further, through 1997, only one permit holder out of the over 350,000 permits issued, was convicted of homicide. (Source: Kleck, Gary Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control, p 370. Walter de Gruyter, Inc., New York, 1997.) If the rest of the country behaved as Florida's permit holders did, the U.S. would have the lowest homicide rate in the world.

David Kopel, Research Director at the Independence Institute comments on Florida's concealed carry experience:

"What we can say with some confidence is that allowing more people to carry guns does not cause an increase in crime. In Florida, where 315,000 permits have been issued, there are only five known instances of violent gun crime by a person with a permit. This makes a permit-holding Floridian the cream of the crop of law-abiding citizens, 840 times less likely to commit a violent firearm crime than a randomly selected Floridian without a permit." ("More Permits Mean Less Crime..." Los Angeles Times, Feb. 19, 1996, Monday, p. B-5)

Thirty-five states have enacted "shall-issue" concealed carry laws , and two states, Alaska and Vermont, do not require any permit of its residents (state map of concealed carry laws).

That’s it for this weekend. I didn’t respond to every last one of your comments.  I really do have a social life, despite your assumed low opinion of it, and not enough time this weekend to address all.  I’d be glad to continue in a few days, provided I don’t frustrate you too much! 

This point in particular I would be glad to discuss further.  I wrote: "In other words, we are becoming more like Europe."  And, you wrote: “I would appreciate it if you could elaborate on that comment. I see very little in common between Europe today and the US. The American gun culture has nothing in common with Europe's low gun violence.”  For now, I’ll just say I was not referring to the gun culture.  I was referring to your “35,000 gun related deaths per year” statistic, of which the majority are suicides.