The sage Israeli commentator
and activist Uri Avnery recently published an excellent analysis of the
Israel/Iran situation on The Planetary Movement (1). Mr. Avnery
presented the full list of strategic reasons why it is highly unlikely that
Netanyahu will launch such an attack. It would result in: the immediate closing
of the Strait of Hormuz, thus cutting off the flow of about 40% of the world's
oil; an immediate all-out Iranian missile assault on the Israeli cities, with
some missiles getting through and wreaking much destruction no matter how good
the Israel/US "missile shield" is; unknown to most US citizens
(including an unknown number of their political leaders, especially on the
Right anyway), Iran is very large country, "larger than Germany, France,
Spain and Italy combined," Mr. Avnery tells us, thus making it tough to
bomb "everything;" it would be a long war, something on the scale of the
Vietnam War. Further, very importantly (and the Israelis know this), given the
very powerful Israeli nuclear force, Avnery tells us, what difference would it
really make in world politics if Iran does get The Bomb (think India/Pakistan).
This is an excellent list,
known to many of the Israeli and US political and military staffs and leaders
who are dealing with the situation. Further, one could add to it the cost of
the inevitable massive civilian casualties, both to the people of Iran, of
course, but also to the people of Israel, plus the further lowering of the
latter's already dismal reputation around the world and the inevitable further
rise in international anti-Semitism. Of course, none of the elements of the
list appears to be either known or understood by the Israeli Far FAR Right/AIPAC/GOP
true political trumpeters of war in both the US and Israel, who really mean
what they say, like for example in the U.S., Sens. Santorum and McCain:
"bomb, bomb, bomb Iran."
However, there are political reasons that indicate that
Netanyahu has no intention of attacking Iran. I think that for him they are the
more important considerations for not doing so. First, domestically, a recent
poll showed that 60% of Israelis disapprove of any pre-emptive strike on Iran. He
could lose his present control of the Israeli government very easily. Second, although he might not give a hoot
about what would happen to oil prices from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,
he does know what would happen to Israel as the result of a counter-attack from
Iran using their conventional missile weapons, which would very likely have
very similar political consequences. Third, he also knows, counter to the
Israeli published bravado on this one, that any attack in an attempt to destroy
Iran's "nuclear weapons" facilities (whether or not they actually
exist), given the size of the country and the depth of the burial of Iran's
nuclear facilities, whether for peaceful or military purposes, would be
technically very difficult to carry out, with no guarantee of success. That
could also lead to a political catastrophe for him. Finally, of course, there
surely would be no "knock-out" of an Iranian nuclear weapons program
if, as many intelligence analysts sources, including US ones, state, there is
none (2).
Given these domestic
political considerations, as well as the strategic ones about which the current
right-wing Israeli government might or might not care, why is the Netanyahu government
doing what it is doing in re Iran? Well, by a process of elimination it would appear
that Netanyahu's primary goal in trumpeting the
"Iran/bomb-let's-bomb" option is political alright, but political in
the US, not in Israel. Indeed it appears
that what Netanyahu is really doing is using the "Iran-nukes-let's-bomb" issue to
try to secure a GOP victory in the US in November. Thus the constant painting
of Obama as a wimp and blaggard (a scoundrel; an unprincipled, contemptible
person; an untrustworthy person) on the matter, despite the fact that Obama's
position in reality varies little from the published Israeli one: "we [the
U.S.] will not let Iran get the bomb" (whether they want it or not).
Certainly, the AIPAC/GOP axis, fronting for Netanyahu, treats Obama that way.
And why would Netanyahu
want to do that, other than (apparently) really not liking Obama personally?
Because his goals of aggression have nothing to do with Iran. Rather, they have everything to do with the
Palestinians and the Occupied Territories, known to the Israeli Right, their US
far right-wing/Orthodox settler base in them, and their US Right-wing Christian
supporters as the (fictitious) "Greater Israel." They all make policy based on a
piece of Biblical text, whose human writers did, several millennia ago,
describe "The Land of Israel." What Netanyahu and his
even-further-to-the-right allies really want to do is annex the West Bank and
drive out the Palestinians. And then at least some of them have said that they
would like to ethnically cleanse Israel of its Arab citizens.
If Obama wins re-election,
it is highly unlikely that any of this would be possible. Further, in an Obama second term, in one way
or another Netanyahu could well be forced into real negotiations with the
Palestinians. This is something he absolutely does not want to do (3). And so,
the solution? Get a Republican government elected. How to help do this, in addition to having
the Israeli Right's extremely wealthy US backers pour money into the GOP
coffers? By feeding strongly into the standard GOP myth that Obama (?Muslim,
?Kenyan, definitely "black" [even though he is half white]) is
"weak." Under a GOP/US government, Iran would still not be bombed,
for the strategic reason presented above. But Israel would certainly not have
to negotiate with the Palestinians, and might very well be allowed to proceed
with its own "resolution" of the "Palestinian problem,"
which many Israeli government officials have openly advocated (4). This appears to be the only logical
explanation for Netanyahu's current behavior, vis---vis the "Iran-bomb" question.
---
References:
1.
click here
2. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29610.
3. Jonas, S., "Why the
Current Israeli Government Will Not Negotiate,"
http://www.planetarymovement.org/index2.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=541&pop=1&page=0.
4. Danny Danon (a deputy
speaker of the Israeli Knesset), "Making the Land of Israel Whole, The New
York Times, May 18, 2011.
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