Hezbollah is the New Government of Lebanon. Now What?
FRANKLIN LAMB
Beirut
This
observer tends to get a haircut about every four months whether I need it or
not. But this morning I got more than a trim from my Hezbollah friend and
barber, Abass, named after Abass ibn Ali, the brother of Hussein, both martyrs
and heroes of the epic 680 a.d. internecine Muslim battle at Karbala in present
day Iraq. The Battle of Karbala, for Hezbollah members and Shia Muslims
generally, symbolizes the triumph of good over evil and the willingness to
sacrifice one's life for justice and the greater good of one's family,
community or "Ummah." The reason for mentioning this is that my barber was
ecstatic and claims his party has just experienced a "Karbala moment!"
When I mentioned that his statement could be taken different ways, since
all the resistance fighters were killed at Karbala, Abass continued:
"Well, what I mean is that we in Hezbollah are pretty well known for kicking and keeping the Zionists out of Lebanon but our Party also seems to be catching on how to work in Lebanese and regional politics. And our people will benefit as we create social programs and honest government for the first time in Lebanese history. Do you agree that we are beginning to play the Lebanese political game pretty well?"
I do agree.
With a speed that surprised many here, and with equally surprising
cross-sectarian acquiescence this morning, Hezbollah and its allies
constitutionally toppled Hariri's government, constitutionally imposed new
consultations to form a new government, and constitutionally transformed a
minority into a majority and vice versa.
Hezbollah is known for studying political subjects very carefully and being
quite flexible when events warrant. Two weeks ago when the Party of God pulled
11 MPs from the pro-US Saad Hariri government, it was thinking about nominating
former PM Omar Karami to replace Hariri. The two time former Prime Minister,
Karami, is strongly pro-Syrian, supports the Resistance and Hezbollah keeping
its weapons. He also has zero use for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon that
will likely indict a minimum of four Hezbollah officials. Now in his eighties,
Karami is still fairly spry and may have assumed the post, if Hezbollah
formally offered. In fact he might have thought the job was his but in the
midst of fast moving events, Hezbollah decided to opt for nominating Nigib
Mikati an American educated, Sunni
billionaire who made lots of money in telecommunications and a lot more
when a South African firm bought his company. Moreover, Sayyed Nasrallah said in his last speech that
Omar Karami was the favored candidate, but the latter did not offer to take the
job due to his old age. So the best thing to do was thought to be to talk to Mikati,
as he is known to be a centrist and that his candidacy would have a less
negative impact on the Hariri camp. Mikati is not close to Hezbollah and
certainly has never been an ally.
In fact, Hezbollah, the Saudis, Europeans, and increasingly the Americans support Mikati as a World Bank type technocrat along the lines of former Lebanese PM Fuad Siniora or Salam Fayyad in Palestine but who can hopefully, not just ignore, but help clean up the governments rampant corruption. Hezbollah's nominee Mikati is known as a pro western moderate who was elected to Parliament in 2009 on the US backed Hariri ticket. The US would publically endorse him except for the fact that Hezbollah nominated him with Iranian, Syrian and Saudi backing. This hostile reactive US stance may change because Washington will find it difficult to boycott Mikati since the Europeans are endorsing him. Also, the negative international reaction to the Hariri camp violence on 1/27/11 in Tripoli and Beirut is awkward for the Obama administration to justify since the US has accused the Hezbollah led opposition of using "terrorist tactics" when some elements thought to be allied with the party engaged in similar street violence in the past. So the shoe is now on the other foot.
Some
of the early winners and losers 48 hours following what the pro-US March 14
team and the US State Department are still calling "the coup":
Saad Hariri and his US backed Future Movement: Both are big political losers
this morning but Saad still has a couple of important options. For the past
nearly two years Saad was told by the US Embassy that Washington wanted him to
"hang tough" and refuse to compromise on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. The
US conceived and engineered the STL in the UN Security Council to get Syria out
of Lebanon and Bashar Assad out of Damascus following the Valentine Day 2005
murder of PM Rafik Hariri and 22 others.
Saad obediently did as told and consequently
lost his premiership. Hezbollah warned him several times that he would be
out if he did not disavow the STL which Hezbollah views as nothing more than a
US-Israeli bludgeon to try to destroy it. When the Hezbollah led opposition
pulled down his government on January 12, 2011, Saad was ready to fight to keep
his job. But his US and Saudi backers "stabbed Saad in the back as did some of
his closest political and personal friends," according to a Future Movement
source.
Meanwhile, both Saudi Arabia and the Obama Administration realized that
Saad could not secure the 65 votes from Parliament (they were right; he got
just 60) so they decided to let Syria name the non-ideologue, Nigab
Mikati, a personal friend of President Bashar Assad. Omar Karami may have been
the first choice but he too was dropped because he also could not get 65 votes
and had a checkered past including being too cozy with Syria. The US and the
KSA decided better to let Syria back into the Lebanese Government than risk
Iran taking complete control.
Saad Hariri reportedly feels betrayed by his fellow Sunni billionaire alliance member Mikati, who he got elected MP in 2009 on his personal ticket. But in reality Mikati's 87% election results showed that his candidacy helped Hariri's candidates because Mikati's name was on the ballot as part of the Hariri list. Nevertheless, their meeting yesterday morning lasted about 6 minutes and was stone cold. The Hariri TV channels including Future TV chose to publish just 30 seconds of the encounter. When Hariri left the meeting and was asked by a journalist if he would join the Mikati government he said "Lashou." ( meaning: "For what?, or what's the use?" ).
Just hours later, the March 14 alliance informed Makati that it would not participate in his government. But both may still. The Saudi's are already encouraging Saad to swallow his pride and cooperate with the next government. Eventually the Americans will likely also after they get over their shock and sour grapes and Jeffrey Feltman talks with the French and some Europeans leaders this weekend.
This morning, Saad is said to be still inconsolable by yesterday
afternoon's private session with the US Ambassador, the motherly Maury
Connelly, and repeated this morning that he will not join a government
"appointed by Hezbollah." But his March 14 movement leadership is qualifying
his rejection and strongly pressing PM designate Makati to put in writing for
all to see a commitment that his government will not under any circumstances
accept the three Hezbollah no's. They are: no STL funding, no STL
Lebanese judges working at the STL, and no Lebanese government cooperation with
the STL including scrapping the Lebanese-UN Memorandum of Understanding
pledging cooperation on such matter as arresting and extraditing those soon to
be named by the STL.
March 14, including their leader Hariri, is still insisting on their price for
participation, which is that the new government support the STL and that the Lebanese government
control Hezbollah's arms. They will lose on both demands as Hezbollah
will not budge on either. Yet,
discussions are being held on how to resolve these issues and, unlikely
as it may appear at the moment, solutions may be found to dissolve these "red
lines'.
If Saad stays out of the Mikati government, he will champion the STL but
he will lose more March 14th support because some of his closest team members
are said to be planning to jump ship and to put politics about their claimed
principles in order to grab some well-paid Cabinet chairs. March 14, via Fuad
Sinoria, their Parliamentary leader is making lots of noise about Hezbollah weapons
but it's largely as a bargaining chip ploy to get good cabinet posts when the
time is right.
This current March14, playing hard to get stance, suits US diplomat Jeffrey
Feltman, one of the architects of the 2005 "Cedar Revolution" and who is currently
on his 62nd trip to the region to assure anyone listening that he and the US
government "respects the sovereignty, freedom, and independence" of Lebanon,
whatever any of those words mean anymore, given US actions in the region. In
Paris yesterday, Feltman repeated that there persists mutual French-U.S.
concern on how the Hariri cabinet was "toppled under threat and
intimidation" and he emphasized the need for the US and its allies to
press for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions 1701 (disarm
Hezbollah) and 1757 (indict and convict Hezbollah).
Jeff could be forgiven for feeling a little bit like Saeb Erekat when on
10/21/09 the soon to be ex-PA "peace negotiator" complained to George
Mitchell that, "The region is slipping away like sand through our hands."
Feltman, not for the first time, is under great pressure from Washington and
Tel Aviv to "do something!"
Rampant rumors circulating here include one that the US Embassy could be closed
if, as expected, the US and Israel launch the expected massive international
defamation and vilification campaign in the coming weeks timed to drive home
the expected STL indictments that Washington believes will include key
Hezbollah officials.
Hezbollah has the most direct control over the government of Lebanon including
the Parliament, the next 30 seat Cabinet, and the government bureaucracy.
Contrary to US-Israel claims the party is not thrilled with having the chance
to run the government. Hezbollah sees itself as a resistance movement first, last,
and always and many in the party do not relish its "pure mandate" being sullied
or getting sidetracked by running Lebanon's really complicated government.
Hezbollah will now push its clean government and anti-corruption agenda and get
it enacted into law but the party is quite content to leave it to others to
work constantly with all those self-absorbed sects and their leaders. To a
large extent, it will operate through MPs who are not Hezbollah party members.
It intends to immediately begin work on improving the big Four issues that all
Lebanese urgently want addressed: water, electricity, pollution, traffic among
others including the environment and jobs creation. Hezbollah wants to be seen
as serving the people while it builds its resistance movement. It is preparing
to unveil its domestic legislative agenda which will include most of the ten
"good government' initiatives that its ally Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri
delivered to Mikati yesterday.
Hezbollah's 12-member bloc told the new Prime Minster that it favored a
government of "national partnership," according to its head MP Mohammad Raad
who advised the media: "Hezbollah did not set pre-conditions [on Mikati] and we
won't accept such a thing. We did not ask for specific portfolios and we await
the formation process."
Iran benefited with important political gains as it continues to rise and move
in the region in the direction of Palestine.
The United States' hegemony continues to recede in the region and is
increasingly viewed, post Palestine Papers, as the enemy of Arabs and Muslim.
Its pariah status grows because Washington continues to prop up, fund and arm
the Zionist occupation of Palestine.
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