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I am an American political scientist specializing in the future of the global political system. I recently published "Mideast Peace or Fascism," "Palestine and Global Security," "Hammering Islamic Radicals," "Smarter Iran Policy Begins With a New Attitude", and "Gaza: Laboratory for the Power-Hungry." Retired from a career in national security, where my final position was Director of Long-Range Analysis at the National Intelligence Council, I now write a foreign affairs blog at shadowedforest.blogspot.com, publish a newsletter on good governance, and develop ways of applying analytical methods (complex adaptive systems, scenario analysis, system dynamics) for the study of the future of international relations.
Thursday, June 9, 2011(1 comments)
Is Israel Plotting...or Stumbling toward...Mideast War?
The Netanyahu regime in Israel is out-of-touch with regional realities and, according to his own recently retired spy chief, a threat to Israeli national security. If Obama cares about Israeli security, he should listen to Israel's own now-retired Mossad, military, and Shin Bet directors.
Saturday, December 11, 2010(1 comments)
Turkey is emerging onto the regional stage as an independent actor as it simultaneously begins to face up to its Muslim roots and attempts to strengthen democracy at home. If these are inspiring times for Turks, Ankara's new policy represents an historic opportunity for the U.S. to promote a moderate Mideast middle to serve as a buffer between the violence-prone forces currently setting the Mideast political agenda.
Sunday, June 6, 2010(3 comments)
If Iran's goal is foreign policy independence, its recent agreement with Brazil and Turkey gives it an opportunity to pursue that goal and enhance its national security simultaneously. Iran can best do this by trading away its dangerous policy of nuclear ambiguity and promoting the emergence of a moderate coalition of states seeking a less hierarchical international political system.
Sunday, April 25, 2010(1 comments)
Positive-Sum Mideast Strategy
Mideast security strategy need not be zero-sum; a positive-sum strategy that viewed security as a common good might enhance the security of all. To contribute to such a strategy, Washington should support an inclusive, multipolar, regional system rather than an Israeli-centric system that marginalizes Israel's adversaries.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010 TIME FOR A CHANGE, WASHINGTON: 'All Options' on the Road to Palestinian-Israeli Peace
"All (rational) options" should be placed on the table by Washington in a sincere quest for Palestinian-Israeli peace. If the right wing under Netanyahu does not care to participate in this process, Washington should turn its attention to all other parties willing to cooperate. The range of options available for Washington to change ground truth in the Mideast is enormous.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009(7 comments)
Wanted: An American People's Party
The steady decline in U.S. national health care management, financial system regulation, environmental oversight, and national security in recent years—trends not reversed by the election of Obama—all point to one conclusion: it is time for the American people to start defending their interests against the elite.